MNI BRIEF: Japan Nov CGPI Rises 3.7% Y/Y, Import Prices Drop

MNI: JAPAN NOV CORP GOODS PRICE INDEX +3.7% Y/Y; OCT REV +3.6%

TRUDEAU SAYS IT LOOKS LIKE BOC WILL BE LOWERING RATE AGAIN

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI: USDA: 2024/2025 CORN PRODUCTION EST 15.14B BSL

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 12-Month BOT Auction on Wednesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: 4.25% Jul-34 Gilt Due Wednesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US: FAQ: When Might We Have A Result In Pennsylvania & Wisconsin?

US
USCredit BulletsHomepagemarkets-real-timeCommoditiesPolitical Risk BulletPower BulletsGlobalEnergy BulletsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

A common question surrounding the election has been on the timing of counts and potential calls, notably in the possible 'tipping-point' states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There are some factors that could speed up the process in comparison to 2020. The proportion of mail-in and early voting is down on the COVID election of 2020 (69%), but remains high by historical standards (up around 50% this time according to some estimates, compared to 40% in 2016, 33% in 2012, 31% in 2008). Moreover, new technology at many counting locations is likely to enable faster scanning of ballots. 

  • While the election is extremely tight in terms of individual vote numbers in swing states there is the possibility of a 'polling miss' going one way or the other, meaning that former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris end up carrying all or nearly all the swing states. This is opposed to the razor-edge outcome where the two of them split the swing states somewhat evenly.
  • In the event of this 'polling miss swing state sweep' scenario, the wait for a clear outcome could be over faster than expected. In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.8% in Pennsylvania, the race there was called at 0135ET, with Trump declared the overall winner at 0229ET following the declaration of Wisconsin for Trump at that time. Local media in Wisconsin expects results no earlier than around midnight ET or the early hours of 6 Nov.
243 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

A common question surrounding the election has been on the timing of counts and potential calls, notably in the possible 'tipping-point' states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There are some factors that could speed up the process in comparison to 2020. The proportion of mail-in and early voting is down on the COVID election of 2020 (69%), but remains high by historical standards (up around 50% this time according to some estimates, compared to 40% in 2016, 33% in 2012, 31% in 2008). Moreover, new technology at many counting locations is likely to enable faster scanning of ballots. 

  • While the election is extremely tight in terms of individual vote numbers in swing states there is the possibility of a 'polling miss' going one way or the other, meaning that former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris end up carrying all or nearly all the swing states. This is opposed to the razor-edge outcome where the two of them split the swing states somewhat evenly.
  • In the event of this 'polling miss swing state sweep' scenario, the wait for a clear outcome could be over faster than expected. In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.8% in Pennsylvania, the race there was called at 0135ET, with Trump declared the overall winner at 0229ET following the declaration of Wisconsin for Trump at that time. Local media in Wisconsin expects results no earlier than around midnight ET or the early hours of 6 Nov.