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US: FAQ: When Might We Have A Result In Pennsylvania & Wisconsin?

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A common question surrounding the election has been on the timing of counts and potential calls, notably in the possible 'tipping-point' states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There are some factors that could speed up the process in comparison to 2020. The proportion of mail-in and early voting is down on the COVID election of 2020 (69%), but remains high by historical standards (up around 50% this time according to some estimates, compared to 40% in 2016, 33% in 2012, 31% in 2008). Moreover, new technology at many counting locations is likely to enable faster scanning of ballots. 

  • While the election is extremely tight in terms of individual vote numbers in swing states there is the possibility of a 'polling miss' going one way or the other, meaning that former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris end up carrying all or nearly all the swing states. This is opposed to the razor-edge outcome where the two of them split the swing states somewhat evenly.
  • In the event of this 'polling miss swing state sweep' scenario, the wait for a clear outcome could be over faster than expected. In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.8% in Pennsylvania, the race there was called at 0135ET, with Trump declared the overall winner at 0229ET following the declaration of Wisconsin for Trump at that time. Local media in Wisconsin expects results no earlier than around midnight ET or the early hours of 6 Nov.
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A common question surrounding the election has been on the timing of counts and potential calls, notably in the possible 'tipping-point' states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. There are some factors that could speed up the process in comparison to 2020. The proportion of mail-in and early voting is down on the COVID election of 2020 (69%), but remains high by historical standards (up around 50% this time according to some estimates, compared to 40% in 2016, 33% in 2012, 31% in 2008). Moreover, new technology at many counting locations is likely to enable faster scanning of ballots. 

  • While the election is extremely tight in terms of individual vote numbers in swing states there is the possibility of a 'polling miss' going one way or the other, meaning that former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris end up carrying all or nearly all the swing states. This is opposed to the razor-edge outcome where the two of them split the swing states somewhat evenly.
  • In the event of this 'polling miss swing state sweep' scenario, the wait for a clear outcome could be over faster than expected. In 2016, when Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 0.8% in Pennsylvania, the race there was called at 0135ET, with Trump declared the overall winner at 0229ET following the declaration of Wisconsin for Trump at that time. Local media in Wisconsin expects results no earlier than around midnight ET or the early hours of 6 Nov.