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POLITICAL RISK: US Federal Layoffs Likely If Not Enough Quitters - WaPo

POLITICAL RISK
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  • The Washington Post (in full here) writes that federal government layoffs are likely if too few choose to quit.
  • “Workers have until Thursday to decide whether to take an offer to resign now and be paid through the end of September.”
  • A reminder that public sector payrolls growth has been providing an outsized impact on total nonfarm payrolls growth for some time, although that has been coming from the much larger state and especially local government sectors. There are around 3.0m federal employees, 5.5m state and almost 15m local.
  • As such, whilst overall government job creation averaged a monthly 32k in Q4 for close to double the 18k averaged in 2019 and treble the 9k averaged through 2017-18, federal-specific job creation has averaged 3k in Q4 for no discernible change from the 2k in 2019.
  • Quit rates are much lower in the public sector than the private sector, at 0.8% as of today's report for Dec (and just 0.4% specifically for federal workers) compared to 2.2% for private, suggesting layoffs could be likely. 
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  • The Washington Post (in full here) writes that federal government layoffs are likely if too few choose to quit.
  • “Workers have until Thursday to decide whether to take an offer to resign now and be paid through the end of September.”
  • A reminder that public sector payrolls growth has been providing an outsized impact on total nonfarm payrolls growth for some time, although that has been coming from the much larger state and especially local government sectors. There are around 3.0m federal employees, 5.5m state and almost 15m local.
  • As such, whilst overall government job creation averaged a monthly 32k in Q4 for close to double the 18k averaged in 2019 and treble the 9k averaged through 2017-18, federal-specific job creation has averaged 3k in Q4 for no discernible change from the 2k in 2019.
  • Quit rates are much lower in the public sector than the private sector, at 0.8% as of today's report for Dec (and just 0.4% specifically for federal workers) compared to 2.2% for private, suggesting layoffs could be likely. 
image