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US Gas Storage Draw of -170bcf Expected: BNEF

NATGAS

The US EIA gas storage data due for release at 10:30ET (15:30GMT) is expected to show a withdrawal of -170bcf for the week ending Jan 12 according to BNEF.

The Bloomberg survey average suggests a draw of -167bcf on the week compared to the seasonal normal draw of -122bcf.

  • The BNEF samples-based model predicts a withdrawal of -173bcf while the weather-based supply and demand model predicts a withdrawal of -164bcf.
  • Total storage was last week reported at 3,336bcf after an -140bcf draw on the week. US storage was 348bcf higher than the seasonal average of 2,988bcf and 83bcf higher than the previous 5-year high.
  • The severe US cold arrived after the end of this period so will be mostly reflected in data next week but demand was still higher on the previous week. Consumption up by 3.7bcf/d to 114.4bcf/d driven by residential / commercial and industrial demand to offset a dip in power gen demand.
  • Supply is expected to have reduced by 0.7bcf/d to 90.7bcf/d led by a drop in Mexico supply.
  • The early view for the week ending Jan 19 is a withdrawal of -322bcf.
    • US Natgas FEB 24 down -0.9% at 2.84$/mmbtu
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