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US Gasoline Crack Falls to Lowest Since Nov

OIL

The front month US gasoline crack spread has fallen to the lowest since Nov 21 amid concern for weak seasonal demand and rising inventories. Crude prices are also weaker today driven by demand concerns and strong non-OPEC supply despite supply risks from the Middle East, Libya and OPEC+ cuts during Q1.

  • The gasoline spread fell around 13.8% last week after EIA showed a drop in demand following indications of weaker demand from both OPIS and GasBuddy.
  • US gasoline demand however rose in the week to Jan 6 by 2.3% compared to the previous week but was still 6.8% below the four week moving average according to GasBuddy data yesterday. The national average price of gasoline is falling towards lows seen in December down to $3.077/gal on Jan 7 according to AAA.
  • US gasoline stocks rose to 1.7% above the previous five year average according to EIA weekly data last week.
  • The US 321 crack spread suggests the narrowest US refining margin since late October having fallen from around 25.9$/bbl in mid Dec back to 21.7$/bbl.
    • US 321 crack down -0.1$/bbl at 21.65$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 14.18$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.5$/bbl at 36.61$/bbl
    • EU Gasoline-Brent down -0.2$/bbl at 8.58$/bbl
    • EU Gasoil-Brent up 0.5$/bbl at 23.01$/bbl

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