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US Gasoline Cracks Could Rally Towards Driving Season: BofA

OIL PRODUCTS

US gasoline cracks could rally further as the driving season approaches according to Bank of America.

  • “RBOB-Brent could rise even higher in the coming months, driven by China’s reopening, a rebound in price elastic demand, and the positive effects of US Tier 3 gasoline specs,” according to a report on 6 March.
  • Cutting sulfur levels in gasoline has pushed up the price of high-octane blending components like reformate and alkylate and may lead to similar explosive upside in gasoline prices this summer.
  • “We expect gasoline to lead China’s demand recovery first and with jet fuel taking over later in the year.”
  • Global refining FCC capacity will continue to lag pre-Covid levels until at least 2024 and may constrain the ability to handle a gasoline recovery this summer.
  • “The surge in hydrocracking capacity this year and next should be capable of handling expected increases in diesel consumption.”
    • US 321 crack down 0$/bbl at 36.87$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 35.37$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 39.88$/bbl
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