US Gasoline Demand Robust, Crude Starts Day Down Following Fed’s Waller

After a soft start to Wednesday, oil prices trended higher through the European/US sessions to be little changed. They have taken a step down at the start of the APAC session as Governor Waller said that the Fed should wait before easing (see MNI). They look set to post another monthly rise though as prospective Fed easing, geopolitical tensions, improved demand prospects and OPEC supply cuts buoyed prices (see MNI Commodity Weekly). The USD index was flat.

• WTI is up 0.1% to $81.71/bbl after a low of $80.55 earlier but has started today down at $81.64. It is up 5.5% in March. A bull theme continues and the uptrend has resumed. Initial resistance is at $83.12, March 19 high, and support at $79.83, 20-day EMA.
• Brent rose 0.1% to $86.31/bbl after reaching a low of $85.17 earlier. It is now up 5.4% on the month. Initial resistance is at $86.92 with $87.62 opening up after that. Support is at $83.92.
• EIA data showed a 3.17mn barrel crude inventory build despite a small drawdown being expected but significantly lower than the API data reported on Bloomberg. Imports rose 0.42mbd to 6.7mbd. Gasoline stocks increased 1.3mn barrels after drawdowns over the past weeks, but distillate fell 1.19mn. Refinery utilisation rose 0.9pp to 88.7%.
• Implied gasoline demand, using the 4-week average of supplied product, rose for the sixth consecutive week in the US and is now at its highest level for the time of year since 2020, according to Bloomberg.
• JP Morgan continues to forecast Brent at $90/bbl by May and $85 in H2 with the potential it will go to $100.