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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
As we await January's US inflation print (0830ET/1330GMT), it's worth reminding that upside surprises have become much less pronounced on headline CPI vs the all-time historic surprises we saw in mid-summer 2021.
- The last reading to surprise to the upside was October's (6.2% Y/Y vs 5.9% expected, for a +0.3pp surprise), and prior to that the only upside miss of more than 0.1pp was in June.
- That contrasts with the Eurozone where upside surprises have become commonplace over the past 7 readings, and accordingly, the ECB's hawkishness has increased.
- That being said, we haven't had a downside US surprise on headline since January 2021, potentially amplifying the impact of such a miss this time.
Source: Eurostat, BLS, BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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