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US Housing Leads Owners Equivalent Rent

US
  • In the past year, we have seen that the constant liquidity injections from central banks to finance the high costs of lockdown have led to a significant recovery in risky assets, especially equities.
  • In addition, US house prices have also been strongly supported in recent months, with the Case-Shiller Index of property values surging by 14.6% YoY, its strongest gain since 1988.
  • This chart shows that the annual change in US house prices tends to lead US CPI owners' equivalent rent (OER) by 18 months.
  • As a reminder, changes in OER have a significant impact on aggregate inflation as measured by the CPI (24% weight according to BLS).
  • Based on that chart, inflation could remain elevated (above 3%) longer than what some policymakers expect.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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