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US INFLATION: MNI US CPI Preview: Core Goods Inflation Back In Focus

US INFLATION
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We've just published our preview for the October CPI report - PDF here.

  • Analyst forecasts for October's CPI report (out Wednesday) show a central expectation that sequential inflation will come in relatively steady compared with September.
  • The MNI consensus for core CPI is 0.30% M/M (median) / 0.29% (mean) unrounded, vs 0.31% prior, while headline is seen at 0.20% M/M (median) / 0.21% (mean), vs 0.18% in September. These are in line with BBG consensus medians, and as suggested by the means, there is a slight downside bias to core.
  • Forecasts appear aligned on a fairly sharp pickup in core goods prices (was 0.17% in Sept, est 0.23% in Oct), driven by used cars.
  • The potential for tariffs will put more focus on core goods inflation in the months ahead: its deflationary contributions are already fading, and an outcome in line with consensus would mark a 17-month high.
  • Core services are seen steady at 0.35% (0.36% Sep), with shelter inflation looking very similar to September, and rebounding prices in lodging offset by a pullback in airfare price pressures.
  • In other words, the largest core categories are seen basically unchanged, but the volatile categories are seen reversing prior moves and essentially offsetting each other.
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We've just published our preview for the October CPI report - PDF here.

  • Analyst forecasts for October's CPI report (out Wednesday) show a central expectation that sequential inflation will come in relatively steady compared with September.
  • The MNI consensus for core CPI is 0.30% M/M (median) / 0.29% (mean) unrounded, vs 0.31% prior, while headline is seen at 0.20% M/M (median) / 0.21% (mean), vs 0.18% in September. These are in line with BBG consensus medians, and as suggested by the means, there is a slight downside bias to core.
  • Forecasts appear aligned on a fairly sharp pickup in core goods prices (was 0.17% in Sept, est 0.23% in Oct), driven by used cars.
  • The potential for tariffs will put more focus on core goods inflation in the months ahead: its deflationary contributions are already fading, and an outcome in line with consensus would mark a 17-month high.
  • Core services are seen steady at 0.35% (0.36% Sep), with shelter inflation looking very similar to September, and rebounding prices in lodging offset by a pullback in airfare price pressures.
  • In other words, the largest core categories are seen basically unchanged, but the volatile categories are seen reversing prior moves and essentially offsetting each other.