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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GLOBAL
- Within the ISM service beat for November, new export orders stood out to the downside as they fell -9.3pts to 38.4.
- Following an even larger -17.4pt slide in October, the rate of decline in export orders has been unprecedented with the 26.7 two-month decline the largest at least since 1997.
- A level lower than 38.4 has only been seen at the depths of the Great Financial Crisis and initial pandemic lockdowns, at which point world trade was declining at circa -15% Y/Y contrary to the +5.5% Y/Y most recently in CPB’s September update.
- There are caveats here: service new export orders up to and including September were implying notable upside for world trade growth that never materialised, they are noisier than the manufacturing equivalent which has seen a more subdued decline and almost 80% of ISM Service respondents don’t perform or measure orders for work outside of the US (which could limit the reliability of the measure).
- Nevertheless, the unprecedented size of the decline over two months fires a clear warning shot, especially after last week’s warnings from the IMF of a higher chance of global growth slowing to below 2% as the US, the EU and China stall.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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