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US LABOR MARKET: Implied Probability Of Near-Term Port Strike End Falls Sharply

US LABOR MARKET
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President Biden commented today that "I think we're making progress" on resolving the East/Gulf Coast Ports Strike that started earlier this week. 

  • Betting markets aren't so sure: Polymarket implied probability of an end to the strike by end-next week (Fri 11th) have fallen from 75-80% yesterday, to 41% this morning. See chart.
  • This comes as the union and the ports reportedly have no plans for talks in the near term.

  • As we noted in our analysis Wednesday, among other data distortions ahead of the November FOMC, a continued impasse could have implications for the October payrolls report out Nov 1, as next week is the reference week (ending on Saturday Oct 12th) for the month. PDF here


     

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President Biden commented today that "I think we're making progress" on resolving the East/Gulf Coast Ports Strike that started earlier this week. 

  • Betting markets aren't so sure: Polymarket implied probability of an end to the strike by end-next week (Fri 11th) have fallen from 75-80% yesterday, to 41% this morning. See chart.
  • This comes as the union and the ports reportedly have no plans for talks in the near term.

  • As we noted in our analysis Wednesday, among other data distortions ahead of the November FOMC, a continued impasse could have implications for the October payrolls report out Nov 1, as next week is the reference week (ending on Saturday Oct 12th) for the month. PDF here