US LNG Netbacks to Europe and Asia Decline

The JKM-TTF spread is falling back towards parity as both European and Asia prices continue to decline. Front month TTF and JKM have today traded to another recent low and both at the lowest since August 2021.

• The estimated US netback to Europe is 12.42$/mmbtu for April while the US netback to Asia is down to 11.46$/mmbtu. In the remaining summer months, the US netbacks encourage flows to Europe with spreads approximately 1$/mbtu higher than the spreads to Asia.
• The low Northest Asia spot LNG prices under 15$/mmbtu are boosting the interest of price sensitive countries. Thailand's PTT has already secured at least 6 cargoes in tenders recently and have secured another 3 cargoes for April delivery in a tender closing on 17 Feb.
• Total EU LNG sendout has fallen back to around 400mcm/d on 19 Feb from just over 440mcm/d on several days last week.
  • TTF MAR 23 down -3% at 48.37€/MWh
  • NBP MAR 23 down -3.1% at 120.1p/th
  • JKM Mar 23 down -4.6% at 15.19$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Mar 23 down -0.4$/mmbtu at 0.16$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas MAR 23 down -7.8% at 2.1$/mmbtu