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Manuf Backlogs And Client Inventories Diverge...Pricing Power Returning?

US

The May ISM Manufacturing report showed a significant squeeze in manufacturing output, which is coming together with a historic drop in client inventories.

  • The Backlog of Orders index hit a record (since the series began in 1993) 70.6, indicating per the ISM "11 months of new-order intakes more than fully offsetting production outputs.". Five of the Six "big industry sectors" reported a strong increase in backlogs, and no industry reported lower backlogs.
  • Meanwhile, the Customers' Inventories index slipped to a new record low 28.0 (since the series began in 1997), the 3rd straight month of record lows - with none of the 18 industries reporting higher customers' inventories. This figure is considered "a positive for future production growth", per the ISM.
  • Taken together, though, significant demand in restocking by customers is meeting large backlogs in orders, suggesting that bottlenecks.
  • As ING pointed out in May, this combination looks inflationary, with manufacturers' pricing power arguably never higher.


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