US Natgas Holds Onto Gains from Early May

Henry Hub front month is holding onto gains seen so far this month with production still below last year levels and with LNG feedgas recovered slightly from the low levels seen last month.

• US Natgas JUN 24 unchanged at 2.25$/mmbtu
• US Natgas NOV 24 down 0.3% at 2.95$/mmbtu
• US Natgas MAY 25 up 0.1% at 2.97$/mmbtu
• US terminal feedgas flows are relatively unchanged on the day at 13.16bcf/d according to Bloomberg compared to an average of 12.6bcf/d so far in May and 11.9bcf/d in April. Feedgas flow to Cameron is still down by about 0.8bcf/d amid maintenance while Sabine Pass is about 0.5bcf/d below the highest levels seen so far this year.
• US domestic natural gas production is just above the average seen so far this month at 100.2bcf/d today according to Bloomberg and compared to 99.6bcf/d in April. Production is holding just below last year’s levels with Baker Hughes showing the gas rig count still near the lowest since Dec. 2021 despite a slight increase last week.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand has drifted back to near normal levels at 64.7bcf/d today according to Bloomberg. The latest NOAA forecast shows above normal temperatures in most regions in the 6-10 day period but with cooler weather spreading down from the north into the 8-14 day period.
• Export flows to Mexico are strong up at 6.8bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was lower on the day but still high at 503k on May 10.