US Natgas Pulls Back Ahead of EIA Storage Data After Surge Yesterday

Henry Hub front month pulls back following the surge yesterday with near term supplies holding steady and demand muted by warm weather ahead of a small storage draw expected in EIA data later today.

• US Natgas MAR 24 down -2.8% at 1.72$/mmbtu
• US Natgas AUG 24 down -0.3% at 2.48$/mmbtu
• US Natgas FEB 25 up 0.3% at 3.53$/mmbtu
• Prices had rallied from the lowest since June 2020 amid concerns for US production in 2024 with producers such as Chesapeake, Antero, and Comstock set to scale back their natural gas drilling operations.
• US gas production is today estimated at 102.6bcf/d according to Bloomberg after showing a gradual decline since reaching a high of 105.25bcf/d on Feb 7. Output however remains above levels of around 100bcf/d seen this time last year.
• The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb 16 will be released this afternoon at 15:30GMT. The expectation is for a draw of -59bcf according to a Bloomberg survey after a draw of -49bcf last week. The seasonal normal is a draw of -153bcf.
• Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today at 13.27bcf/d according to Bloomberg amid the ongoing works at Freeport train 3 and with Sabine Pass train 2 shut for likely planned works according to Wood Mackenzie.
• The latest US weather forecast is unchanged with the 6-14 period showing above normal temperatures in central and eastern areas but slightly below normal on the west coast. Lower 48 gas demand is down below normal at 82.9bcf/d today.
• Export flow to Mexico is today at 5.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg.