US NFIB Survey: July Optimism Index +0.7 to 107.9 - Text

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are excerpts from the National Federation

of Independent Business' monthly Small Business Optimism index published

Tuesday:

     The Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the

survey's 45-year history at 107.9, rising to within 0.1 point of the July 1983

record-high of 108. The July 2018 report also set new records in terms of owners

reporting job creation plans and those with job openings. A seasonally-adjusted

net 23 percent are planning to create new jobs, up three points from June.

Thirty-seven percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in

the current period, a one-point increase from June.

     "Small business owners are leading this economy and expressing optimism

rivaling the highest levels in history," said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D.

Duggan. "Expansion continues to be a priority for small businesses who show no

signs of slowing as they anticipate more sales and better business conditions."

     A net eight percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher

nominal sales in the past three months compared to the prior three months. July

is the eighth consecutive strong month of reported sales gains after years of

low or negative numbers. A net 35 percent of owners expect better business

conditions, ticking up two points from June.

     Additional July highlights include:

     The percent of owners citing the availability of qualified workers as their

number one business problem landed one point below the record high. Reports of

compensation increases remained strong. Capital spending maintained a

respectable pace but did not display the exuberance of its fellow indicators,

although spending plans did post a gain. Plans to add to inventory holdings were

strong as strong sales continue to deplete stocks. Profits continued to perform,

and more firms raised prices, something that is easier when demand is strong.

"Small business owners have never been so optimistic for so long, helping to

power the second longest expansion in history," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill

Dunkelberg. "Despite challenges in finding qualified workers to fill a record

number of job openings, they're taking advantage of this economy and pursuing

growth."

     Fifty-nine percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down four points),

but 52 percent (88 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no

qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-three

percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their

single most important business problem (up two points), one point below the

45-year record high.

     Optimism Components:        Seas Adj Level %     Change

     PLANS TO INCREASE EMPLOYMENT      23                 3

     PLANT TO MAKE CAPITAL OUTLAYS     30                 1

     PLANS TO INCREASE INVENTORIES      4                -2

     EXPECT ECONOMY TO IMPROVE         35                 2

     EXPECT RETAIL SALES HIGHER        29                 3

     CURRENT INVENTORY                 -3                -3

     CURRENT JOB OPENINGS              37                 1

     EXPECTED CREDIT CONDITIONS        -4                 0

     NOW A GOOD TIME TO EXPAND         32                 3

     EARNINGS TRENDS                   -1                 0

     TOTAL CHANGE                   107.9                 8

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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