US NFIB Survey: November Optimism Index +3.7 to 107.5 - Text

     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following are excerpts from the National Federation

of Independent Business' monthly Small Business Optimism index published

Tuesday:

     Not since the roaring Reagan economy has small business optimism been as

high as it was in November, according to the National Federation of Independent

Business (NFIB) Index of Small Business Optimism, released today.

     "We haven't seen this kind of optimism in 34 years, and we've seen it only

once in the 44 years that NFIB has been conducting this research," said NFIB

President and CEO Juanita Duggan. "Small business owners are exuberant about the

economy, and they are ready to lead the U.S. economy in a period of robust

growth."

     The Index gained 3.7 points in November, a sharp increase over what was

already a near-record performance the previous month. Eight of 10 components

posted gains, including a stunning and rare 16-point gain in Expected Better

Business Conditions and a 13-point jump in Sales Expectations.

     "This is the second-highest reading in the 44-year history of the Index,"

said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "The NFIB indicators clearly

anticipate further upticks in economic growth, perhaps pushing up toward four

percent GDP growth for the fourth quarter. This is a dramatically different

picture than owners presented during the weak 2009-16 recovery.

     "The change in the management team in Washington has dramatically improved

expectations," he continued.

     Job Creation plans increased six points last month, providing more evidence

of a strong labor market. The number of owners who said it's a Good Time to

Expand rose four points; Inventory Plans increased by three points; Inventory

Satisfaction increased by three points; and Actual Earnings Trend moved up two

points.

     "Job creation faded, but hiring plans soared, primarily in construction,

manufacturing, and professional services," said Dunkelberg.

     Finding qualified workers has been a persistent problem all year for small

business owners, a reliable sign of growing economy. Last month, it was the

second most important problem facing small business owners. Only taxes polled

higher.

     "Small business owners are paying very close attention to what is happening

in Washington," said Duggan. "They continue to list taxes as their number-one

problem, but they now have clear expectations that Congress and the President

will address that problem.

     "As long as Congress and the President follow through on tax reform, 2018

is shaping up to be a great year for small business, workers, and the economy."

     Optimism Components:        Seas Adj Level %     Change

     JOB CREATION PLANS                24 (NET)           6

     CAPITAL EXPENDITURE PLANS         26                -1

     INVENTORY PLANS                    7 (NET)           3

     JOB OPENINGS                      30                -5

     INVENTORY SATISFACTION            -2 (NET)           3

     GOOD TIME TO EXPAND               27                 4

     EXPECT BETTER BUSINESS CONDITIONS 48 (NET)          16

     SALES EXPECTATIONS                34 (NET)          13

     EXPECT EASIER CREDIT CONDITIONS   -4 (NET)           1

     ACTUAL EARNINGS TRENDS           -12 (NET)           2

     INDEX OF SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 107.5               

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

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