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Heavy Midweek Issuance Over $31B


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Price Signal Summary: USDBRL Bear Cycle Extends


Front Rates Unwind Overnight Strength

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ADP jobs reports have been pretty consistent the last 3 months: nonfarm private employment estimated at +534k in Nov, vs +570k in Oct (only a 1k downward revision) and +526k in Sep (after a summer lull with +316k avg in Jul-Aug).

  • For what it's worth, the October ADP was pretty close to the eventual BLS nonfarms private payrolls result (+604k).
  • With Fed Chair Powell's comments yesterday implying the default position is for the FOMC to accelerate the taper at the December meeting, likely only a really weak nonfarm print this Friday (seen +525k private, +548 overall) would seriously put those plans into question (apart perhaps from Omicron developments).
  • The Nov ADP reading certainly doesn't change the narrative.
  • Of some note within the details: in the context of ADP jobs remaining 5mln short of pre-pandemic levels, professional services (+110k in Nov, behind only Leisure/Hospitality's +136k) joined construction jobs as moving above their Feb 2020 (ie pre-pandemic) level.

Source: BBG, BLS, ADP