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US Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw Expected

OIL

EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The day delayed EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 11:00 ET (16:00 GMT) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to show a draw of -2.88mbbls for the week ending 22 December according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude inventories in the week to Dec 15 showed an unexpected build with production rising to a new record of 13.3mb/d and with higher imports to offset a slight recovery in exports and a bigger than expected increase in refinery runs. Cushing inventories rose to the highest since August as Gulf Coast fuel makers have been trying to move oil away from the region to minimize year end tax.
  • US refinery utilisation rose more than expected last week to the highest since September at 92.4% while Gulf Coast processing is the highest seasonal level since 2018 supported by strong gasoline and diesel exports. Utilisation is expected to rise by 0.1% this week according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • Total US gasoline stocks are expected to remain relatively unchanged on the week with a Bloomberg survey suggesting a gasoline build of +0.065mbpd and distillates build of +0.035mbpd. Distillates inventories last week built with a drop in exports and despite lower production and a small recovery in demand on the week. Four week distillates demand however fell further below the previous five year range to drive diesel cracks this week to the lowest since mid July amid warm weather and soft trucking demand.
  • Gasoline stocks rose last week with an increase in production and with another drop in implied demand to offset a drop in imports. Gasoline four week average demand edged slightly higher above levels seen this time last year. US retail gasoline demand in the week to Dec 23 saw a decrease of 0.2% but was 1.1% above the average of the last four weeks at 8.518mb/d according to GasBuddy.
  • The EIA data has shown a significant amount of noise in recent weeks with last week again showing a large 783kb/d adjustment factor.
  • The API data released last night showed a crude build of +1.84mbbls with a build of 1.57mbbls at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a draw of -0.48bbls and distillates a build of +0.27mbbls.
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS
Energy BulletsCommoditiesUS

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