US Open

No reprieve to last-weeks widening today, strong €IG supply skewing curves wider, though notably local swap spreads are unch. after last week's -2bp move. €IG is pointing to a >+1bp move & continuing it's underperformance vs. CDS (iTraxx +0.5/+3.5). Rates ($ & €) have been flat this morning helped by in-line Nov Euro retail sales. Little to change low vol in US session - NY Fed expectations generally not a market mover, Bostic ('24 V) coming after our close at 5:30pm London (12:30pm ET) likely the main event. Our US Eco notes his current indic. rate path is for two cuts starting 2H24 - that was from when he last spoke in Dec 19.

Today's earnings;

• Shell (SHEL) (Aa2, A+, AA-); Q4 trading update; € line moves this morning in line with index (~+2 wider). Strong performance in nat. gas was expected by analysts given colder temp's but analyst seem concerned on operating CF generation & concerns in Chemical and product units on refinery margins & utilization.
• Commercial Metals (CMC) (Ba2, BB+, BB+); $ only issuer* Strong beat on rev's & EPS, miss on EBTIDA; ""Our Europe Steel Group performed well against a market environment challenged by weaker demand and lower product margins...Performance in our North America Steel Group was supported by sustained healthy construction activity and near-record margins on our downstream products.
• Boeing (BA) (Baa2, BBB-, BBB-); first trade since FAA grounded the 737-9 Max's on Saturday; no € lines, Airbus (A2,A) € lines mixed this morning
• Brunello Cucinelli (BC); after EU close; no credit but should give insight into Q4 luxury retail demand
• Jefferies (JEF); after US close