MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

RBA SAYS SOME UPSIDE INFLATION RISKS HAVE EASED.

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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US Open

CREDIT PRE-MARKET
  • Bloomberg headlines earlier on "record Euro issuance" include govvies (€15b in BTP's etc.) - still credit supply hasn't slowed down today - market taking today's supply in stride though - index curves little moved, Real Estate names the main drag in €IG, prints point to a small move tighter & compression - outperforming iTraxx (unch) for a change as well. $IG/HY finished -0.7/-7.2 yesterday, B's leading the move in $HY leaving CCC to continue widening against it. Snr fin's finished wider despite supply that's still well balanced. Issuance away from long-end may have continued supporting long-end spreads - its holding onto 6bps of outperformance this yr while rates curve have moved in parallel.
  • We have bbg analyst consensus for S&P500 EPS for Q4 at +0.1% (varying adj. on EPS may have c growth higher) - base effects from last yrs Q4 fall of -3% QoQ support the YoY read - bbg c still has outright EPS contraction to end last year - that is expected to reverse higher throughout this year. S&P has opened -0.6% lower - rates holding flat not giving much support - local equities with similar moves, financials leading the fall though the move is broad based noting Oil volatility continuing - WTI rising 3% into midday before paring gains now. Credit names that reported this morning in US; ACI< SNX, AYI & NEOG.
  • Quiet US Eco calendar (Fed Barr at 5pm Lon/12pm ET isn't expected to talk on MPol) leaves the focus for today on a $52b 3y UST auction that comes after our close at 6pm/1pm ET. ECB's Villeroy comes after our close too at 5:30pm/12:30pm ET - our macro team see him as neutral - he votes in first 3 meetings of this year.
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