US Open

Rates unch for the open, S&P futures -0.1%. €IG again without clear direction - similar unch moves yest. gave $IG spreads the chance to outperform (even in the face of more supply) & there may be continuing support for spreads/supply today with rates around yesterday's highs. CDX has opened weaker +0.4/+2. We flagged flows this morning but we now have updated data for yesterday's session that includes a -$1.6b outflow in LQD - seems concentrated to only it for now - net flows more broadly remain flat & little signs of any weakness in $IG primary or secondary yesterday.

On earnings Pharma Eli Lilly (A1, A+) has reported this morning with a beat on 4Q including on headline revenue ($9.35b vs. c$8.96) & margins - FY24 guidance has also beat expectations - € curve unch. Focus also on Auto's - Ford (Ba1, BBB-, BBB-; S) will report after the close, Toyota (A1, A+, A+; S) came earlier beating on the quarter & raising its FY outlook above consensus - strong beats in NA (+70k), Europe (+50k) & Asia (+30k) - stock jumped 5% on the beat - € cash curve is unch to 2bps tighter.

Quieter in Macro with FedSpeak only events; Mester (’24 voter retiring June) comes at London close (5pm/12pm ET) with text + Q&A. Our Economist notes she last spoke Jan 11 saying March probably too early for a cut & policy in good place. Collins (’25 voter) comes at 7pm Lon/2pm ET with only opening remarks ahead of main appearance tomorrow. She last spoke in mid-November.