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US Open

CREDIT UPDATE

S&P futures are -0.2% with little vol in pre-market. Action today comes after London close; for rates from Fed (Jan) minutes & for equities Nvidia earnings (~4% index weight, +40% YTD & contributing ~25% to SPX's gain).

Re. minutes our economist sees focus on if the Dec dot-pot of 3*25bp cuts is affirmed in any way & any read-through on QT (consensus looking for runoff in treasuries to be halved to $30b/month & eventually halted ~near year end). Rates have priced out 50bps of cuts since the Jan NFP print - currently at ~95bps/4 of cuts this yr & re. QT swap spreads are little changed this month (10yr -36). In the periphery we have a 20y Auction before minutes (6pm Lon/1pm ET).

CDX opening +0.2/+1 wider. $IG issuance expected to continue at pace after $14b (c$50b) yesterday - another strong session; books covered 4.5* & no NIC's & little Impact on secondary spreads; $IG finishing -0.7 tighter yest, but corp's (~75% of yest. supply) did underperform (-0.5 vs. fins -1.1).

Little vol in Euro equities this morning outside of {HSBA LN Equity -8%} on slight miss on results & outlook & below consensus dividends. €IG cash credit is skewed tighter despite active primary (fin skewed issuance). Exceptions include PBB lines that are on the move wider (again). Bayer lines trading flat today.

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