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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Preliminary U.S. Payrolls Revision To Be Taken With Caution

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Released on Wednesday at 1000ET, there are broad expectations for the preliminary annual payrolls benchmark revision to imply large downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls growth through the 4 quarters to March 2024. 
  • We’ve seen estimates of at least 500k with a central guess perhaps at 600k, but historical upward revisions to the underlying QCEW data and their potential to undercount undocumented labor could see larger downward revisions faded unless there is a particularly large surprise. 
  • Instead, we feel risk to market pricing is on a smaller preliminary downward revision.

See more at the following link: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/66029/USPrelimBenchmark2024Preview.pdf

 

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