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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: RBC Below Consensus For Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • RBC look for core CPI below consensus at a rounded 0.1% M/M (cons 0.2), pushing the Y/Y pace down to 3.1% for core and 2.5% for headline.
  • They see core goods posting a sixth consecutive declines (-0.1% M/M). "That streak is at risk of ending in the September report (released in Oct), as used car prices are positioned to rise."
  • “Similarly, new car prices declined in 9 out of the past 10 months – but we expect to see a slight uptick this month. A resolution of the CDK Global software attack, which impacted nearly 15,000 auto dealers in North America should help sales recover.”
  • They see core services slowing to 0.2% m/m, "with help from travel and shelter prices".
  • "Our DIS team continues to show 2024 travel activity lagging prior years, suggesting hotel, airfare, and recreation pricing will remain weak.”
  • “And last month, rent and OER surprised to the upside, but we expect both will resume a slowing trend this month. We forecast OER will show a 0.2% m/m rise, a much needed improvement to get core back to the 2% target."
  • "Still, the risk remains that shelter (specifically OER) stays sticky, as structural housing shortages continue to push housing prices higher. […] Without a continued supply of new home construction, core’s path back to the 2% target could remain elusive.”
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