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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Rental Inflation Seen Cooling But Not To 'Normal' [1/3]

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionNorth America

The following excerpts are taken from the MNI US CPI Preview (in full here). 

  • Two months of far stronger than expected rental inflation has raised doubts over the speed at which the long-awaited latest step in rental disinflation shows up in the CPI data.
  • OER provided the most notable upside surprise of the Aug report, accelerating to 0.50% M/M (analyst av 0.30) after 0.36% in Jul and the 0.43% averaged in 1H24, on what looked like a broad-based regional move rather than a single area distorting results. Tenants’ rents meanwhile, fresh from their surprise lurch higher in July, moderated by less than expected to 0.37% M/M (analyst av 0.30) after 0.49% to no further progress from the 0.37% averaged in 1H24.
  • With analysts expecting 0.36% for OER and 0.32% for primary rents in September, the weighted average of OER and primary rental inflation should cool notably from the particularly strong 0.47% M/M in August, but it would still mean that June, with its 0.27% M/M increase, has been the only month this cycle with a rate at or below the 0.27% M/M averaged pre-pandemic. 

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The following excerpts are taken from the MNI US CPI Preview (in full here). 

  • Two months of far stronger than expected rental inflation has raised doubts over the speed at which the long-awaited latest step in rental disinflation shows up in the CPI data.
  • OER provided the most notable upside surprise of the Aug report, accelerating to 0.50% M/M (analyst av 0.30) after 0.36% in Jul and the 0.43% averaged in 1H24, on what looked like a broad-based regional move rather than a single area distorting results. Tenants’ rents meanwhile, fresh from their surprise lurch higher in July, moderated by less than expected to 0.37% M/M (analyst av 0.30) after 0.49% to no further progress from the 0.37% averaged in 1H24.
  • With analysts expecting 0.36% for OER and 0.32% for primary rents in September, the weighted average of OER and primary rental inflation should cool notably from the particularly strong 0.47% M/M in August, but it would still mean that June, with its 0.27% M/M increase, has been the only month this cycle with a rate at or below the 0.27% M/M averaged pre-pandemic. 

A screenshot of a graph Description automatically generated