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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: UBS Dial Back 50bp Sept Cut Call After CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • From yesterday after CPI… UBS now look for three 25bp cuts over the three meetings left this year. vs their post-payrolls shift to a 50bp cut in Sept before two more 25bp cuts in Nov and Dec. 
  • “We expect this to be well signaled in the September FOMC meeting materials and the Summary of Economic Projections.” 
  • “We expect Chair Powell will lay out a case for an orderly withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness in a speech at Jackson Hole the morning of Friday, August 23, and by orderly, we mean 25 bp rate cuts, rather than 50 bp”.
  • They then see a brief pause in January before six consecutive cuts to 3-3.25% as of Oct 2025, where they see it on hold through 2026. 
  • “Moving to successive 25 bp rate cuts now would help reposition policy closer to typical FOMC reaction functions, without suggesting more serious risk to the expansion.”
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