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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Wells Fargo See U/E Insulated But Not Immune From Disruption

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Wells Fargo see nonfarm payrolls growth of 75k in October but it “will be difficult to get a clean read from the October jobs report on whether employment conditions are firming up as much as the September report implied”.
  • “The ongoing strike at Boeing has sidelined 33K union workers and led to furloughs for some non-union workers. In addition, payrolls are likely to be depressed from the devastation caused by hurricanes Helene and Milton, the latter of which made landfall during the survey week.”
  • “The unemployment rate should be more insulated—although not entirely immune—from these events. Striking workers are still considered employed in the household survey, although furloughed workers are not. Similarly, workers absent from work due to weather are still counted as employed, although workers at businesses destroyed would not. We look for the unemployment rate to be unchanged in October at 4.1%.”
  • “While the October payroll print will likely understate the current position of the jobs market, we continue to see strains under the surface that point to the jobs market softening further in the near term. Hiring remains narrowly concentrated among industries, average weekly hours point to businesses using existing workers less intensely, and consumers see a dwindling number of job opportunities. The cooler backdrop should keep a lid on average hourly earnings growth, which we expect to rise 0.3% in October.”
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