MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, February 10

MNI BRIEF: PBOC'S Zou Promoted To Vice Governor Role

MNI BRIEF: China Steel To See Limited Impact From U.S. Tariffs

MNI: China CFETS Yuan Index Down 0.15% In Week of Feb 7

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY234 Bln via OMO Monday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1707 Mon; -1.31% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY JAN CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY JAN CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.3% Y/Y

MNI: US DEC CONSUMER CREDIT +$40.8B

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

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US DATA: US Payrolls Wrap: Strong Recent Trends Trim Cut Expectations [2/2]

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  • Starting from a historical levels perspective, the benchmark revision to the outright number of payrolled employees was the most negative since 2009 but it wasn’t as bad as feared. The -598k revision left the non-seasonally adjusted level of payrolls in March 2024 0.4% lower than before Friday’s release but compared with -818k from the preliminary estimate released back in August and recent estimates we had seen between -670k to -700k based on latest QCEW data.
  • As for more recent trends, the 143k seasonally adjusted increase in nonfarm payrolls disappointed consensus of 175k but it was more than offset by a strong two-month upward revision of 100k. What’s more, these upward revisions were on figures already starting from a strong base, and we see the latest three-month trend standing at 237k as the more important takeaway than the latest pullback in January.
  • The realization of this recent trend strength was notable as there had been a risk that the annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors could have lent on some of this strength. These revisions did indeed see a much less favorable factor in December (biasing seasonally adjusted payrolls growth lower on the month) but new information more than offset this considering there was a 51k upward revision for December alone.
  • Turning to the household survey, it was clearly stronger than expected at 4.01% (cons 4.1) to continue a pullback from cycle highs of 4.23% in November with its lowest since May 2024. We have some questions about the calculations adjusting for the population control but it doesn’t notably detract from a trend that sees the u/e rate moving away from the 4.3% that the median FOMC member forecast for 4Q25.
  • Rounding out the major variables from the report, average hourly earnings growth was far stronger than expected at 0.48% M/M (cons 0.3). However, this surprise acceleration coincided with a notable further decline in average weekly hours, to 34.1 from a downward revised 34.2 in Dec, leaving it at a joint low with only one-month in the pandemic and having last been seen in mid-2010. It’s all the more notable because the BLS categorically said Southern California wildfires and cold weather had no discernible effect on employment or hours worked.
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  • Starting from a historical levels perspective, the benchmark revision to the outright number of payrolled employees was the most negative since 2009 but it wasn’t as bad as feared. The -598k revision left the non-seasonally adjusted level of payrolls in March 2024 0.4% lower than before Friday’s release but compared with -818k from the preliminary estimate released back in August and recent estimates we had seen between -670k to -700k based on latest QCEW data.
  • As for more recent trends, the 143k seasonally adjusted increase in nonfarm payrolls disappointed consensus of 175k but it was more than offset by a strong two-month upward revision of 100k. What’s more, these upward revisions were on figures already starting from a strong base, and we see the latest three-month trend standing at 237k as the more important takeaway than the latest pullback in January.
  • The realization of this recent trend strength was notable as there had been a risk that the annual revisions to seasonal adjustment factors could have lent on some of this strength. These revisions did indeed see a much less favorable factor in December (biasing seasonally adjusted payrolls growth lower on the month) but new information more than offset this considering there was a 51k upward revision for December alone.
  • Turning to the household survey, it was clearly stronger than expected at 4.01% (cons 4.1) to continue a pullback from cycle highs of 4.23% in November with its lowest since May 2024. We have some questions about the calculations adjusting for the population control but it doesn’t notably detract from a trend that sees the u/e rate moving away from the 4.3% that the median FOMC member forecast for 4Q25.
  • Rounding out the major variables from the report, average hourly earnings growth was far stronger than expected at 0.48% M/M (cons 0.3). However, this surprise acceleration coincided with a notable further decline in average weekly hours, to 34.1 from a downward revised 34.2 in Dec, leaving it at a joint low with only one-month in the pandemic and having last been seen in mid-2010. It’s all the more notable because the BLS categorically said Southern California wildfires and cold weather had no discernible effect on employment or hours worked.
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