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US: Race For Control Of The Senate Moves Further Away From Democrats

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A new set of polls from the New York Times/Siena College has shown the race for control of the Senate appears to be drifting even further away from Democrats.

  • The surveys show Democrat Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R) by seven points in Montana. If Tester fails to retain his seat, Republicans will be heavily favoured to flip control of the Senate.
  • In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) lead has shrunk further to just one point, according to the Washington Post, opening up another strong path for the GOP to win the chamber.
  • In the two long-shot Republican defensive races, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is maintaining a four-point lead over Democrat Rep Colin Alred (D-TX), and Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) has extended his lead in Florida to nine points. The two southern races suggest there is a very low chance of a 'plan B' route if Tester loses in Montana.
  • In response to the new polling, Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate dropped from 30% to 25% today, according to Polymarket. 

Figure 1: Democrats Retain Control of the Senate 

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A new set of polls from the New York Times/Siena College has shown the race for control of the Senate appears to be drifting even further away from Democrats.

  • The surveys show Democrat Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy (R) by seven points in Montana. If Tester fails to retain his seat, Republicans will be heavily favoured to flip control of the Senate.
  • In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown's (D-OH) lead has shrunk further to just one point, according to the Washington Post, opening up another strong path for the GOP to win the chamber.
  • In the two long-shot Republican defensive races, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is maintaining a four-point lead over Democrat Rep Colin Alred (D-TX), and Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) has extended his lead in Florida to nine points. The two southern races suggest there is a very low chance of a 'plan B' route if Tester loses in Montana.
  • In response to the new polling, Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate dropped from 30% to 25% today, according to Polymarket. 

Figure 1: Democrats Retain Control of the Senate 

Keep reading...Show less