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Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: Focus on November Jobs Ahead Fed Blackout
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Consolidation Ahead Nov Jobs Report
US: Recap of Economic Indicators
Jul-17 Jun-17 May-17 Apr-17 Mar-17 Feb-17
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1 250/244 245/242 238/243 235/250 252/244 237/245
wk 2 248/246 238/243 236/244 234/247 246/243 248/247
wk 3 234/244 242/245 233/241 243/243 261/247 247/246
wk 4 245/244 244/242 235/236 257/242 259/255 227/240
wk 5 240/242 255/240
Nonfarm Payrolls +209k +231k +145k +207k +50k +232k
Private Payrolls +205k +194k +153k +194k +77k +222k
Mfg Payroll +16k +12k Flat +9k +11k +22k
Unemployment 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7%
Avg Wkly Hours 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.3 34.3
Avg Hours - Mfg 40.9 40.9 40.7 40.7 40.6 40.7
Aggr Hours Index +0.2% +0.5% -0.2% +0.8% flat -0.1%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg +0.1% +0.6% Flat +0.3% -0.1% -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings +0.3% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.1%
Final Demand PPI +0.1% Flat +0.5% -0.1% +0.3%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.3% +0.4% 0.0% +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade +0.2% -0.1% +0.7% +0.1% +0.3%
CPI Flat -0.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.1%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% -0.1% +0.2%
Import Prices -0.2% -0.1% +0.2% -0.2% +0.3%
non-petro import prices +0.1% Flat +0.3% +0.1% +0.3%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index 62.0 55.0 60.5 68.5 70.5 68.0
Core PCE Price Index +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% -0.2% +0.2%
Treasury Budget (bn) -$90.2 -$88.4 +$182.4 -$176.2 -$192.0
Consumer Credit (bn) +$12.4 +$18.3 +$12.3 +$15.2 +$17.1
CB Consumer Confidence 121.1 117.3 117.6 119.4 124.9 116.1
Consumer Sentiment 93.4 95.1 97.1 97.0 96.9 96.3
Car Sales, saar (mn) 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3
Truck Sales, saar (mn) 8.7 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.6 9.2
Total, saar (mn) 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.9 12.9 13.5
Retail Sales -0.2% -0.1% +0.3% +0.1% -0.2%
excl motor vehicles -0.2% -0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +0.1%
Personal Income Flat +0.3% +0.2% +0.3% +0.5%
Personal Spending +0.1% +0.2% +0.3% +0.5% +0.1%
ISM Mfg Index 56.3 57.8 54.9 54.8 57.2 57.7
ISM Nonmfg NMI 53.9 57.4 56.9 57.5 55.2 57.6
MNI Chicago Report 58.9 65.7 59.4 58.3 57.7 57.4
Phila Fed Mfg Index 19.5 27.6 38.8 22.0 32.8 43.3
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index 23.4 33.6 25.6 30.1 35.4 29.3
Empire State Index 9.8 19.8 -1.0 5.2 16.4 18.7
Markit Mfg Index 53.3 52.0 52.7 52.8 53.3 54.2
Markit Nonmfg Index 54.6 54.2 53.6 53.1 52.8 53.8
Ind Production +0.4% +0.1% +0.8% +0.1% +0.3%
Capacity Util 76.6% 76.4% 76.4% 75.8% 75.9%
Factory Orders +3.0% -0.8% -0.3% +1.0% +0.8%
Factory Orders ex
transport -0.2 % -0.3% Flat +0.2% +0.3%
Durables +6.4% -0.1% -0.8% +2.4% +1.4%
Durables ex transport +0.1% +0.6% -0.4% 0.9% +0.3%
Nondurables -0.3% -0.8% +0.2% -0.3% +0.3%
Mfg Shipments -0.2% +0.3% Flat -0.2% +0.3%
Business Inventories +0.3% -0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
Factory +0.2% -0.1% Flat +0.2% +0.2%
Retail +0.6%(a) +0.6% -0.2% +0.2% +0.3%
Wholesale +0.6%(a) +0.4% -0.5% +0.2% +0.4%
Housing Starts (mn) 1.215 1.122 1.154 1.189 1.288
Building Permits (mn) 1.275 1.168 1.228 1.260 1.219
NAHB Index 64 66 69 68 71 65
New Home Sales (k) 610 605 577 638 615
Existing Homes (mn) 5.52 5.62 5.56 5.7 5.47
Pending Home Sales Index 110.2 108.6 109.4 111.3 112.3
Construct Spending -1.3% +0.3% -1.8% +0.3% +1.0%
Private Residential -0.2% -0.8% -0.4% +0.8% +0.7%
Trade Balance (bn) -$43.6 -$46.4 -$47.6 -$45.3 -$44.9
Exports (bn) $192.0 $191.2 $191.5 $191.7
Imports (bn) $238.5 $238.8 $236.7 $236.6
Goods Only, BOP (bn) -$65.2 -$67.4 -$68.4 -$66.1 -$65.3
Leading Index +0.6% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.5%
Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16
GDP (chain-wt) +2.6% +1.2% +1.8%
Final Sales +2.6% +2.7% +0.7%
Chain prices +1.0% +2.0% +2.0%
Current-dollar +3.6% +3.3% +3.8%
Q1-17 Q4-16
Nonfarm Productivity Flat +1.8%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs +2.2% +1.3%
Q2-17 Q1-17 Q4-16
ECI (q/q) +0.5% +0.8% +0.5%
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: holly.stokes@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.