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Weak Data Over 50Bp ECB Hike

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Clears The 20-Day EMA

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Late Equity Roundup

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Eurodollar/SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

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US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18   Jun-18   May-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        214/210  204/208  214/214  215/223  222/226  211/216
wk 2                                 202/206  212/216  208/221  221/225  223/214
wk 3                                 215/206  210/214  217/218  218/221  234/220
wk 4                                 207/207  213/212  219/214  228/222  223/223
wk 5                                          205/210           232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +134k    +270k    +165k    +208k    +244k
Private Payrolls                       +121k    +254k    +137k    +192k    +260k
Mfg Payroll                             +18k      +5k     +22k     +21k     +23k
Unemployment                            3.7%     3.9%     3.9%     4.0%     3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.5     34.6     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.9     41.0     41.0     40.8
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.1%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.5%    +0.2%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%    -0.1%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%
Final Demand PPI                       +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.5%
excl food & energy                     +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%
excl food, energy, trade               +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.1%
CPI                                    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Import Prices                                   -0.6%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.9%
non-petro import prices                         -0.1%    -0.3%    -0.3%    +0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 66.9     72.1     73.2     76.8     79.5
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +2.2%    +2.3%    +2.3%    +2.3%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                         Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.0%
Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$214.1   -$76.9   -$74.9  -$146.8
Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$16.6    +$8.7   +$21.9
CB Consumer Confidence                 138.4    134.7    127.9    126.4    128.8
Consumer Sentiment                     100.8     96.2     97.6     98.2     98.0
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     3.0      2.8      3.0      3.1      3.0
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                     7.2      7.1      6.9      7.2      6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                10.2      9.9      9.9     10.3      9.9
Retail Sales                                    +0.1%    +0.7%    +0.2%    +1.2%
excl motor vehicles                             +0.3%    +0.9%    +0.3%    +1.4%
Personal Income                                 +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index                           59.8     61.3     58.1     60.2     58.7
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          61.6     58.5     55.7     59.1     58.6
MNI Chicago Report                      60.4     63.6     65.5     64.1     62.7
Phila Fed Mfg Index                     22.9     11.9     25.7     19.9     34.4
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  37.4     41.7     44.3     39.1     45.3
Empire State Index                      19.0     25.6     22.6     25.0     20.1
KC Fed Mfg Index                          13       14       23       28       29
Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    29       24       20       21       16
Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    28.1     30.9     32.3     36.5     26.8
Markit Mfg Index                        55.6     54.7     55.3     55.4     56.4
Markit Services Index                   53.5     54.8     56.0     56.5     56.8
Ind Production                                  +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.6%    -0.8%
Capacity Util                                   78.1%    77.9%    77.8%    77.4%
Factory Orders                                  +2.3%    -0.5%    +0.6%    +0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                       +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.8%
Durables                                        +4.4%    -1.2%    +0.9%    -0.3%
Durables ex transport                            Flat    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.3%
Nondurables                                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +1.1%
Mfg Shipments                                             Flat    +1.0%    +0.6%
Business Inventories                                     +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.3%
Factory                                         +0.5%    +0.8%    +0.2%    +0.2%
Retail                                                   +0.5%    -0.1%    +0.4%
Wholesale                                       +0.9%    +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.3%
Housing Starts (mn)                             1.282    1.174    1.177    1.329
Building Permits (mn)                           1.249    1.303    1.292    1.301
NAHB Index                                         67       68       68       70
New Home Sales (k)                                629      608      618      653
Existing Homes (mn)                              5.34     5.34     5.38     5.41
Pending Home Sales Index                                 106.2    106.9    105.9
Construct Spending                              +0.1%    +0.2%    -0.7%    +0.7%
Private Residential                             -0.5%    -0.2%    -0.7%    -0.3%
Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$50.1   -$45.7   -$42.6
Exports (bn)                                           +$211.1  +$213.2  +$214.7
Imports (bn)                                           +$261.2  +$258.9  +$257.2
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$73.1   -$68.9   -$65.8
Leading Index                                   +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.5%    +0.1%
                                                                           Q2-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                             +4.2%
Final Sales                                                                +5.4%
Chain prices                                                               +3.0%
Current-dollar                                                             +7.6%
                                                                           Q2-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.9%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   -1.0%
                                                                           Q2-18
ECI (q/q)                                                                  +0.6%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]

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