US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18   Jun-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        221/217  215/210  204/208  214/214  215/223  222/226

wk 2                        224/219  210/212  202/206  212/216  208/221  221/225

wk 3                        234/223  216/212  215/206  210/214  217/218  218/221

wk 4                                 215/214  207/207  213/212  219/214  228/222

wk 5                                 214/214           205/210           232/225

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +250k    +118k    +286k    +165k    +208k

Private Payrolls                       +246k    +121k    +267k    +137k    +192k

Mfg Payroll                             +32k     +18k     +11k     +22k     +21k

Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.9%     3.9%     4.0%

Avg Wkly Hours                          35.5     34.4     34.5     34.5     34.6

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.9     40.9     41.0     41.0

Aggr Hours Index                       +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.5%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                    Flat    +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%    +0.4%

Avg Hourly Earnings                     +0.2    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat    +0.3%

excl food & energy                     +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.3%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%

CPI                                    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Import Prices                          +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.4%    -0.1%     Flat

non-petro import prices                +0.2%     Flat    -0.2%    -0.2%    -0.3%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 71.6     66.9     72.1     73.2     76.8

PCE Price Index M/M                    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.2%    +2.3%    +2.3%

Core PCE Price Index M/M               +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y               +1.8%    +1.9%    +1.9%    +2.0%    +2.0%

Treasury Budget (bn)                 -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1   -$76.9   -$74.9

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$10.9   +$20.1   +$16.6    +$8.7

CB Consumer Confidence        135.7    137.9    135.3    134.7    127.9    126.4

Consumer Sentiment             97.5     98.6    100.1     96.2     97.6     98.2

Car Sales (Ex GM), saar

(mn)                                     3.2      3.0      2.8      3.0      3.1

Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar

(mn)                                     6.9      7.2      7.1      6.9      7.2

Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                10.1     10.2      9.9      9.9     10.3

Retail Sales                           +0.8%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%

excl motor vehicles                    +0.7%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.8%    +0.3%

Personal Income                        +0.5%     +0.2    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.4%

Personal Spending                      +0.6%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.5%    +0.4%

ISM Mfg Index                           57.7     59.8     61.3     58.1     60.2

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          60.3     61.6     58.5     55.7     59.1

MNI Chicago Report             66.4     58.4     60.4     63.6     65.5     64.1

Phila Fed Mfg Index                     22.2     22.9     11.9     25.7     19.9

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  37.6     37.4     41.7     44.3     39.1

Empire State Index                      21.1     19.0     25.6     22.6     25.0

KC Fed Mfg Index                 15        8       13       14       23       28

Richmond Fed Mfg Index           14       15       29       24       20       21

Dallas Fed Mfg Index           17.6     29.4     28.1     30.9     32.3     36.5

Markit Mfg Index               55.4     55.7     55.6     54.7     55.3     55.4

Markit Services Index          54.4     54.8     53.5     54.8     56.0     56.5

Ind Production                                  +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.6%

Capacity Util                                   78.1%    78.1%    77.9%    77.8%

Factory Orders                                  +0.7%    +2.6%    -0.5%    +0.6%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                       +0.4%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%

Durables                               -4.4%    -0.1%    +4.6%    -1.2%    +0.9%

Durables ex transport                  +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%

Nondurables                                     +0.6%    +0.6%    +0.1%    +0.4%

Mfg Shipments                                   +0.9%    +0.7%     Flat    +1.0%

Business Inventories                            +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.7%    +0.1%

Factory                                         +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.8%    +0.2%

Retail                                          +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.6%    -0.1%

Wholesale                                       +0.4%    +0.9%    +0.6%    +0.1%

Housing Starts (mn)                    1.228    1.210    1.280    1.184    1.177

Building Permits (mn)                  1.265    1.270    1.249    1.303    1.292

NAHB Index                                60       68       67       68       68

New Home Sales (k)                       544      597      591      603      618

Existing Homes (mn)                     5.22     5.15     5.33     5.34     5.38

Pending Home Sales Index               102.1    104.8    104.1    106.1    107.0

Construct Spending                     -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.4%    +0.2%    -0.7%

Private Residential                    -0.5%    +0.1%    -2.6%    +0.7%    -0.7%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$54.0   -$53.3   -$50.0   -$45.7

Exports (bn)                                  +$212.6  +$209.4  +$211.1  +$213.2

Imports (bn)                                  +$266.6  +$262.7  +$261.2  +$258.9

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$77.2   -$76.6   -$73.2   -$68.9

Leading Index                                   +0.5%    +0.4%    +0.7%    +0.5%

                                                                           Q3-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                                             +3.5%

Final Sales                                                                +1.2%

Chain prices                                                               +1.7%

Current-dollar                                                             +5.0%

                                                                           Q3-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.2%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   +1.2%

                                                                           Q3-18

ECI (q/q)                                                                  +0.8%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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