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Crude Drifts Off High Amid Focus on Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting

OIL
StoryEnergy BulletsCommodities

Crude is drifting down from a high of $75.41/bbl with ongoing geopolitical tensions as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine risks Russian oil infrastructure and is set against risk of a crude surplus widely expected in 2025.

  • The market awaits signs of OPEC’s output plans for 2025 after previous attempts to try and bring barrels back to the market during Q4 were delayed.  Output for January is expected to be decided at the Dec. 1 minister meeting and many are expecting the reduction in output cuts to be pushed out into 2025.
  • Stricter sanctions against Iran under the Trump administration are expected which could reduce global supply by around 1mb/d. Iran plans to hold talks with the UK, France and Germany this week about its nuclear program, Kyodo reported.
  • US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advised Donald Trump to push for an extra 3mb/d of oil or equivalent production, according to WSJ.
  • Lightly than normal trading volumes due to the Thanksgiving holiday this week could increase market volatility ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
  • Diesel crack spreads are maintaining the trend higher since early November as money managers have flipped to net bullish on gasoil for the first time since July. US gasoline cracks have facing downward pressure since Nov. 21 although increased travel during the upcoming holiday could help boost demand.
    • Brent JAN 25 down 0.9% at 74.53$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 down 0.9% at 70.57$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.09$/bbl at 1.18$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 13.26$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 25.02$/bbl
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Crude is drifting down from a high of $75.41/bbl with ongoing geopolitical tensions as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine risks Russian oil infrastructure and is set against risk of a crude surplus widely expected in 2025.

  • The market awaits signs of OPEC’s output plans for 2025 after previous attempts to try and bring barrels back to the market during Q4 were delayed.  Output for January is expected to be decided at the Dec. 1 minister meeting and many are expecting the reduction in output cuts to be pushed out into 2025.
  • Stricter sanctions against Iran under the Trump administration are expected which could reduce global supply by around 1mb/d. Iran plans to hold talks with the UK, France and Germany this week about its nuclear program, Kyodo reported.
  • US Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent advised Donald Trump to push for an extra 3mb/d of oil or equivalent production, according to WSJ.
  • Lightly than normal trading volumes due to the Thanksgiving holiday this week could increase market volatility ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
  • Diesel crack spreads are maintaining the trend higher since early November as money managers have flipped to net bullish on gasoil for the first time since July. US gasoline cracks have facing downward pressure since Nov. 21 although increased travel during the upcoming holiday could help boost demand.
    • Brent JAN 25 down 0.9% at 74.53$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 down 0.9% at 70.57$/bbl
    • Brent JAN 25-FEB 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 0.53$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.09$/bbl at 1.18$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0$/bbl at 13.26$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack up 0.3$/bbl at 25.02$/bbl