US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18   Jul-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                                 221/217  215/210  204/208  214/214  215/223

wk 2                                 224/219  210/212  202/206  212/216  208/221

wk 3                                 234/223  216/212  215/206  210/214  217/218

wk 4                                 231/228  215/214  207/207  213/212  219/214

wk 5                                          214/214           205/210

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +155k    +237k    +119k    +286k    +165k

Private Payrolls                       +161k    +251k    +117k    +267k    +137k

Mfg Payroll                             +27k     +26k     +19k     +11k     +22k

Unemployment                            3.7%     3.7%     3.7%     3.9%     3.9%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.5     34.4     34.5     34.5

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9     41.0

Aggr Hours Index                       -0.2%    +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%    -0.2%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.2%    +0.2%    -0.1%    -0.2%    +0.2%

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.3%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%     Flat

excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%    +0.1%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.3%

CPI                                             +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%

excl food & energy                              +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%

Import Prices                                   +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.4%    -0.1%

non-petro import prices                         +0.2%     Flat    -0.2%    -0.2%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 60.7     71.6     66.9     72.1     73.2

PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.1%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.2%    +2.3%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.2%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.8%    +1.9%    +1.9%    +2.0%

Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1   -$76.9

Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$10.9   +$20.1   +$16.6

CB Consumer Confidence                 135.7    137.9    135.3    134.7    127.9

Consumer Sentiment         97.5 (a)     97.5     98.6    100.1     96.2     97.6

Car Sales (Ex GM), saar

(mn)                                     2.9      3.2      3.0      2.8      3.0

Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar

(mn)                                     6.9      6.9      7.2      7.1      6.9

Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                 9.8     10.1     10.2      9.9      9.9

Retail Sales                                    +0.8%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.6%

excl motor vehicles                             +0.7%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.8%

Personal Income                                 +0.5%     +0.2    +0.4%    +0.3%

Personal Spending                               +0.6%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.5%

ISM Mfg Index                           59.3     57.7     59.8     61.3     58.1

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          60.7     60.3     61.6     58.5     55.7

MNI Chicago Report                      66.4     58.4     60.4     63.6     65.5

Phila Fed Mfg Index                     12.9     22.2     22.9     11.9     25.7

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index                  43.3     37.6     37.4     41.7     44.3

Empire State Index                      23.3     21.1     19.0     25.6     22.6

KC Fed Mfg Index                          15        8       13       14       23

Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    14       15       29       24       20

Dallas Fed Mfg Index                    17.6     29.4     28.1     30.9     32.3

Markit Mfg Index                        55.4     55.7     55.6     54.7     55.3

Markit Services Index                   54.4     54.8     53.5     54.8     56.0

Ind Production                                  +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.8%    +0.4%

Capacity Util                                   78.4%    78.5%    78.5%    78.0%

Factory Orders                                  -2.1%    +0.2%    +2.6%    -0.5%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                       +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.1%

Durables                                        -4.3%     Flat    +4.7%    -1.2%

Durables ex transport                           +0.2%    -0.5%    +0.3%    +0.2%

Nondurables                                     +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%    +0.1%

Mfg Shipments                                            +0.9%    +0.7%     Flat

Business Inventories                                     +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.7%

Factory                                         +0.1%    +0.5%    +0.1%    +0.8%

Retail                                                   +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.6%

Wholesale                                       +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.9%    +0.6%

Housing Starts (mn)                             1.228    1.210    1.280    1.184

Building Permits (mn)                           1.265    1.270    1.249    1.303

NAHB Index                                         60       68       67       68

New Home Sales (k)                                544      597      591      603

Existing Homes (mn)                              5.22     5.15     5.33     5.34

Pending Home Sales Index                        102.1    104.8    104.1    106.1

Construct Spending                              -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.4%    +0.2%

Private Residential                             -0.5%    +0.1%    -2.6%    +0.7%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$55.5   -$54.6   -$53.7   -$50.0

Exports (bn)                                  +$211.0  +$211.4  +$208.2  +$211.1

Imports (bn)                                  +$266.5  +$266.0  +$261.9  +$261.2

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$78.1   -$77.3   -$76.6   -$73.2

Leading Index                                            +0.5%    +0.4%    +0.7%

                                                         Q3-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                           +3.5%

Final Sales                                              +1.2%

Chain prices                                             +1.7%

Current-dollar                                           +5.0%

                                                         Q3-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                     +2.3%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +0.9%

                                                         Q3-18

ECI (q/q)                                                +0.8%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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