US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        216/222  206/225  221/217  215/210  204/208  214/214

wk 2                        212/221  217/223  224/219  210/212  202/206  212/216

wk 3                        199/215  221/220  234/223  216/212  215/206  210/214

wk 4                                 233/219  231/228  215/214  207/207  213/212

wk 5                                                   214/214           205/210

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +312k    +176k    +274k    +119k    +286k

Private Payrolls                       +301k    +173k    +281k    +117k    +267k

Mfg Payroll                             +32k     +27k     +29k     +19k     +11k

Unemployment                            3.9%     3.7%     3.8%     3.7%     3.8%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.4     34.5     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.9     40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9

Aggr Hours Index                       +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.5%    +0.2%    +0.2%    -0.1%    -0.2%

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.4%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.4%

Final Demand PPI                       -0.2%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%

excl food & energy                     -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%

excl food, energy, trade                Flat    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%

CPI                                     -0.1     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%

excl food & energy                       0.2    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%

Import Prices                          -1.0%    -1.9%    +0.5%    +0.1%    -0.4%

non-petro import prices                +0.3%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 54.9     60.7     71.6     66.9     72.1

PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.8%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.2%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.9%    +1.8%    +2.0%    +1.9%

Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$204.9  -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$22.1   +$25.4   +$10.9   +$20.1

CB Consumer Confidence        120.2    126.6    136.4    137.9    135.3    134.7

Consumer Sentiment         90.7 (a)     98.3     97.5     98.6    100.1     96.2

Car Sales (Ex GM), saar

(mn)                                     3.0      2.9      3.2      3.0      2.8

Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar

(mn)                                     6.9      6.9      6.9      7.2      7.1

Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                 9.9      9.8     10.1     10.2      9.9

Retail Sales                                    +0.2%    +1.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%

excl motor vehicles                             +0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%    +0.1%

Personal Income                                 +0.2%    +0.5%     +0.2    +0.4%

Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +0.6%     Flat    +0.3%

ISM Mfg Index                           54.3     58.8     57.5     59.5     60.8

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          58.0     60.4     60.0     60.8     58.8

MNI Chicago Report                      63.8     63.5     59.4     61.5     63.9

Phila Fed Mfg Index            17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7     21.4       13

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index          1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7     35.8     38.6

Empire State Index              3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0     18.8     24.3

KC Fed Mfg Index                  5        6       17       10       13       15

Richmond Fed Mfg Index           -2       -8       14       15       29       24

Dallas Fed Mfg Index            1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4     28.1     30.9

Markit Mfg Index               54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7     55.6     54.7

Markit Services Index          54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8     53.5     54.8

Ind Production                         +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.8%

Capacity Util                          78.7%    78.6%    78.4%    78.4%    78.5%

Factory Orders                                           -2.1%    +0.2%    +2.6%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                                +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.4%

Durables                                        +0.8%    -4.3%     Flat    +4.7%

Durables ex transport                           -0.3%    +0.4%    -0.5%    +0.3%

Nondurables                                              +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%

Mfg Shipments                                            -0.1%    +0.7%    +0.7%

Business Inventories                                     +0.6%    +0.5%    +0.5%

Factory                                                  +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.1%

Retail                                                   +0.8%    +0.1%    +0.6%

Wholesale                                                +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.9%

Housing Starts (mn)                             1.256    1.217    1.237    1.280

Building Permits (mn)                           1.328    1.265    1.270    1.249

NAHB Index                       58       56       60       60       68       67

New Home Sales (k)                                         544      597      591

Existing Homes (mn)                     4.99     5.32     5.22     5.15     5.33

Pending Home Sales Index                99.0    101.2    102.1    104.8    104.1

Construct Spending                                       -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.4%

Private Residential                                      -0.5%    +0.1%    -2.6%

Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$55.5   -$54.6   -$53.7

Exports (bn)                                           +$211.0  +$211.4  +$208.2

Imports (bn)                                           +$266.5  +$266.0  +$261.9

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$78.1   -$77.3   -$76.6

Leading Index                          -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%    +0.5%    +0.4%

                                                                  Q3-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                                    +3.5%

Final Sales                                                       +1.2%

Chain prices                                                      +1.7%

Current-dollar                                                    +5.0%

                                                                  Q3-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                              +2.3%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                          +0.9%

                                                                  Q3-18

ECI (q/q)                                                         +0.8%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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