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Free AccessMNI ASIA OPEN: Nov Job Gains, Fed Blackout, CPI/PPI Ahead
MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
US: Recap of Economic Indicators
Jan-19 Dec-18 Nov-18 Oct-18 Sep-18 Aug-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1 216/222 206/225 221/217 215/210 204/208 214/214
wk 2 212/221 217/223 224/219 210/212 202/206 212/216
wk 3 199/215 221/220 234/223 216/212 215/206 210/214
wk 4 233/219 231/228 215/214 207/207 213/212
wk 5 214/214 205/210
Nonfarm Payrolls +312k +176k +274k +119k +286k
Private Payrolls +301k +173k +281k +117k +267k
Mfg Payroll +32k +27k +29k +19k +11k
Unemployment 3.9% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4 34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg 40.9 40.8 40.8 40.8 40.9
Aggr Hours Index +0.5% -0.2% +0.5% -0.3% +0.3%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg +0.5% +0.2% +0.2% -0.1% -0.2%
Avg Hourly Earnings +0.4% +0.2% +0.2% +0.3% +0.4%
Final Demand PPI -0.2% +0.1% +0.6% +0.2% -0.1%
excl food & energy -0.1% +0.3% +0.5% +0.2% -0.1%
excl food, energy, trade Flat +0.3% +0.2% +0.4% +0.1%
CPI -0.1 Flat +0.3% +0.1% +0.2%
excl food & energy 0.2 +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.1%
Import Prices -1.0% -1.9% +0.5% +0.1% -0.4%
non-petro import prices +0.3% Flat +0.2% +0.1% -0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index 54.9 60.7 71.6 66.9 72.1
PCE Price Index M/M +0.1% +0.2% +0.1% +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y +1.8% +2.0% +2.0% +2.2%
Core PCE Price Index M/M +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% Flat
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y +1.9% +1.8% +2.0% +1.9%
Treasury Budget (bn) -$204.9 -$100.5 +$119.1 -$214.1
Consumer Credit (bn) +$22.1 +$25.4 +$10.9 +$20.1
CB Consumer Confidence 120.2 126.6 136.4 137.9 135.3 134.7
Consumer Sentiment 90.7 (a) 98.3 97.5 98.6 100.1 96.2
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn) 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.8
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn) 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.1
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn) 9.9 9.8 10.1 10.2 9.9
Retail Sales +0.2% +1.1% -0.2% -0.1%
excl motor vehicles +0.2% +1.0% -0.3% +0.1%
Personal Income +0.2% +0.5% +0.2 +0.4%
Personal Spending +0.3% +0.6% Flat +0.3%
ISM Mfg Index 54.3 58.8 57.5 59.5 60.8
ISM Nonmfg NMI 58.0 60.4 60.0 60.8 58.8
MNI Chicago Report 63.8 63.5 59.4 61.5 63.9
Phila Fed Mfg Index 17.0 9.1 11.9 19.7 21.4 13
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index 1.0 7.7 35.5 34.7 35.8 38.6
Empire State Index 3.9 11.5 21.4 20.0 18.8 24.3
KC Fed Mfg Index 5 6 17 10 13 15
Richmond Fed Mfg Index -2 -8 14 15 29 24
Dallas Fed Mfg Index 1.0 -5.1 17.6 29.4 28.1 30.9
Markit Mfg Index 54.9 53.8 55.4 55.7 55.6 54.7
Markit Services Index 54.2 54.4 54.7 54.8 53.5 54.8
Ind Production +0.3% +0.4% +0.2% +0.1% +0.8%
Capacity Util 78.7% 78.6% 78.4% 78.4% 78.5%
Factory Orders -2.1% +0.2% +2.6%
Factory Orders ex
transport +0.3% +0.1% +0.4%
Durables +0.8% -4.3% Flat +4.7%
Durables ex transport -0.3% +0.4% -0.5% +0.3%
Nondurables +0.3% +0.5% +0.6%
Mfg Shipments -0.1% +0.7% +0.7%
Business Inventories +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%
Factory +0.1% +0.6% +0.1%
Retail +0.8% +0.1% +0.6%
Wholesale +0.8% +0.7% +0.9%
Housing Starts (mn) 1.256 1.217 1.237 1.280
Building Permits (mn) 1.328 1.265 1.270 1.249
NAHB Index 58 56 60 60 68 67
New Home Sales (k) 544 597 591
Existing Homes (mn) 4.99 5.32 5.22 5.15 5.33
Pending Home Sales Index 99.0 101.2 102.1 104.8 104.1
Construct Spending -0.1% -0.1% -0.4%
Private Residential -0.5% +0.1% -2.6%
Trade Balance (bn) -$55.5 -$54.6 -$53.7
Exports (bn) +$211.0 +$211.4 +$208.2
Imports (bn) +$266.5 +$266.0 +$261.9
Goods Only, BOP (bn) -$78.1 -$77.3 -$76.6
Leading Index -0.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.5% +0.4%
Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt) +3.5%
Final Sales +1.2%
Chain prices +1.7%
Current-dollar +5.0%
Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity +2.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs +0.9%
Q3-18
ECI (q/q) +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.