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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(H1) Fragile Outlook

US TSYS SUMMARY

Curve Lower, Flatter as Yields Reverse Off Cycle Highs

US TSY/RECAP

Yield Curve Update

STIR FUTURES

Eurodollars Futures Snapshot

USDCAD TECHS

Consolidating

AUDUSD TECHS

Probes Key Support

US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18   Aug-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1                        216/222  206/225  221/217  215/210  204/208  214/214
wk 2                        212/221  217/223  224/219  210/212  202/206  212/216
wk 3                        200/215  221/220  234/223  216/212  215/206  210/214
wk 4                        253/220  233/219  231/228  215/214  207/207  213/212
wk 5                                                   214/214           205/210
Nonfarm Payrolls                       +312k    +176k    +274k    +119k    +286k
Private Payrolls                       +301k    +173k    +281k    +117k    +267k
Mfg Payroll                             +32k     +27k     +29k     +19k     +11k
Unemployment                            3.9%     3.7%     3.8%     3.7%     3.8%
Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.4     34.5     34.4     34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.9     40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9
Aggr Hours Index                       +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.5%    -0.3%    +0.3%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   +0.5%    +0.2%    +0.2%    -0.1%    -0.2%
Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.4%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.3%    +0.4%
Final Demand PPI                       -0.2%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.2%    -0.1%
excl food & energy                     -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.2%    -0.1%
excl food, energy, trade                Flat    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.4%    +0.1%
CPI                                     -0.1     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.2%
excl food & energy                       0.2    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%
Import Prices                          -1.0%    -1.9%    +0.5%    +0.1%    -0.4%
non-petro import prices                +0.3%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%    -0.2%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 54.9     60.7     71.6     66.9     72.1
PCE Price Index M/M                             +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.1%
PCE Price Index Y/Y                             +1.8%    +2.0%    +2.0%    +2.2%
Core PCE Price Index M/M                        +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                        +1.9%    +1.8%    +2.0%    +1.9%
Treasury Budget (bn)                          -$204.9  -$100.5  +$119.1  -$214.1
Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$22.1   +$25.4   +$10.9   +$20.1
CB Consumer Confidence        120.2    126.6    136.4    137.9    135.3    134.7
Consumer Sentiment         90.7 (a)     98.3     97.5     98.6    100.1     96.2
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn)                                     3.0      2.9      3.2      3.0      2.8
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn)                                     6.9      6.9      6.9      7.2      7.1
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn)                 9.9      9.8     10.1     10.2      9.9
Retail Sales                                    +0.2%    +1.1%    -0.2%    -0.1%
excl motor vehicles                             +0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%    +0.1%
Personal Income                                 +0.2%    +0.5%     +0.2    +0.4%
Personal Spending                               +0.3%    +0.6%     Flat    +0.3%
ISM Mfg Index                           54.3     58.8     57.5     59.5     60.8
ISM Nonmfg NMI                          58.0     60.4     60.0     60.8     58.8
MNI Chicago Report             56.7     63.8     63.5     59.4     61.5     63.9
Phila Fed Mfg Index            17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7     21.4       13
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index          1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7     35.8     38.6
Empire State Index              3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0     18.8     24.3
KC Fed Mfg Index                  5        6       17       10       13       15
Richmond Fed Mfg Index           -2       -8       14       15       29       24
Dallas Fed Mfg Index            1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4     28.1     30.9
Markit Mfg Index               54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7     55.6     54.7
Markit Services Index          54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8     53.5     54.8
Ind Production                         +0.3%    +0.4%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.8%
Capacity Util                          78.7%    78.6%    78.4%    78.4%    78.5%
Factory Orders                                           -2.1%    +0.2%    +2.6%
Factory Orders ex
transport                                                +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.4%
Durables                                        +0.8%    -4.3%     Flat    +4.7%
Durables ex transport                           -0.3%    +0.4%    -0.5%    +0.3%
Nondurables                                              +0.3%    +0.5%    +0.6%
Mfg Shipments                                            -0.1%    +0.7%    +0.7%
Business Inventories                                     +0.6%    +0.5%    +0.5%
Factory                                                  +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.1%
Retail                                                   +0.8%    +0.1%    +0.6%
Wholesale                                                +0.8%    +0.7%    +0.9%
Housing Starts (mn)                             1.256    1.217    1.237    1.280
Building Permits (mn)                           1.322    1.265    1.270    1.249
NAHB Index                       58       56       60       60       68       67
New Home Sales (k)                                657      562      597      591
Existing Homes (mn)                     4.99     5.32     5.22     5.15     5.33
Pending Home Sales Index                99.0    101.2    102.1    104.8    104.1
Construct Spending                                       -0.1%    -0.1%    -0.4%
Private Residential                                      -0.5%    +0.1%    -2.6%
Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$55.5   -$54.6   -$53.7
Exports (bn)                                           +$211.0  +$211.4  +$208.2
Imports (bn)                                           +$266.5  +$266.0  +$261.9
Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$78.1   -$77.3   -$76.6
Leading Index                          -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%    +0.5%    +0.4%
                                                                  Q3-18
GDP (chain-wt)                                                    +3.5%
Final Sales                                                       +1.2%
Chain prices                                                      +1.7%
Current-dollar                                                    +5.0%
                                                                  Q3-18
Nonfarm Productivity                                              +2.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                          +0.9%
                                       Q4-18                      Q3-18
ECI (q/q)                              +0.7%                      +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
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