US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Feb-19   Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18   Sep-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        235/225  216/222  206/225  221/217  215/210  204/208

wk 2                        239/232  212/221  217/223  224/219  210/212  202/206

wk 3                        216/236  200/215  221/220  234/223  216/212  215/206

wk 4                                 253/220  233/219  231/228  215/214  207/207

wk 5                                                            214/214

Nonfarm Payrolls                       +304k    +222k    +196k    +277k    +108k

Private Payrolls                       +296k    +206k    +200k    +285k    +108k

Mfg Payroll                             +13k     +20k     +27k     +29k     +18k

Unemployment                            4.0%     3.9%     3.7%     3.8%     3.7%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.5     34.5     34.5     34.5     34.4

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.8     40.8     40.8     40.8     40.9

Aggr Hours Index                       +0.3%    +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.3%     Flat

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.1%    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat    -0.1%

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.2%    +0.3%

Final Demand PPI                       -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.5%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                     +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.3%    +0.3%    +0.2%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.2%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%    +0.3%

CPI                                     Flat     Flat     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%

excl food & energy                     +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Import Prices                          -0.5%    -1.0%    -1.7%    +0.5%    +0.1%

non-petro import prices                -0.7%    +0.3%     Flat    +0.2%    +0.1%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                 49.6     54.9     60.7     71.6     66.9

PCE Price Index M/M                                      +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.1%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                                      +1.8%    +2.0%    +2.0%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                                 +0.1%    +0.1%    +0.2%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                                 +1.9%    +1.8%    +2.0%

Treasury Budget (bn)                           -$13.5  -$204.9  -$100.5  +$119.1

Consumer Credit (bn)                                    +$22.1   +$25.4   +$10.9

CB Consumer Confidence        131.4    121.7    126.6    136.4    137.9    135.3

Consumer Sentiment                      91.2     98.3     97.5     98.6    100.1

Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                     2.5      2.6      2.5      2.7      2.5

Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,

Saar (mn)                                4.6      5.0      4.9      4.9      5.3

Total Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                     7.1      7.5      7.4      7.6      7.8

Retail Sales                                    -1.2%    +0.1%    +1.0%    -0.2%

excl motor vehicles                             -1.8%     Flat    +0.8%    -0.3%

Personal Income                                          +0.2%    +0.5%     +0.2

Personal Spending                                        +0.3%    +0.6%     Flat

ISM Mfg Index                           56.6     54.3     58.8     57.5     59.5

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          56.7     58.0     60.4     60.0     60.8

MNI Chicago Report                      56.7     63.8     63.5     59.4     61.5

Phila Fed Mfg Index            -4.1     17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7     21.4

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         10.0      1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7     35.8

Empire State Index                       3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0     18.8

KC Fed Mfg Index                           5        6       17       10       13

Richmond Fed Mfg Index                    -2       -8       14       15       29

Dallas Fed Mfg Index           13.1      1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4     28.1

Markit Mfg Index               53.7     54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7     55.6

Markit Services Index          56.2     54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8     53.5

Ind Production                         -0.6%    +0.1%    +0.6%    +0.3%    +0.1%

Capacity Util                          78.2%    78.8%    78.9%    78.4%    78.4%

Factory Orders                                           -0.6%    -2.1%    +0.2%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                                -1.3%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Durables                                        +1.2%    +1.0%    -4.3%     Flat

Durables ex transport                           +0.1%    -0.2%    +0.4%    -0.5%

Nondurables                                              -1.9%    +0.1%    +0.5%

Mfg Shipments                                   +0.8%    +1.0%    -0.3%    +0.7%

Business Inventories                                     -0.1%    +0.6%    +0.5%

Factory                                                  -0.1%    +0.2%    +0.6%

Retail                                                   -0.4%    +0.8%    +0.1%

Wholesale                                                +0.3%    +0.9%    +0.7%

Housing Starts (mn)                             1.078    1.214    1.209    1.237

Building Permits (mn)                           1.326    1.322    1.265    1.270

NAHB Index                                58       56       60       60       68

New Home Sales (k)                                         657      562      597

Existing Homes (mn)                     4.94     5.00     5.21     5.22     5.18

Pending Home Sales Index                         99.0    101.2    102.1    104.8

Construct Spending                                       +0.8%    +0.1%    -1.8%

Private Residential                                       3.5%    -1.1%    -2.0%

Trade Balance (bn)                                      -$49.3   -$55.7   -$54.6

Exports (bn)                                           +$209.9  +$211.2  +$211.4

Imports (bn)                                           +$259.2  +$266.9  +$266.0

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                                    -$71.6   -$78.3   -$77.3

Leading Index                                   -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%    +0.5%

                                                                           Q3-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                                             +3.5%

Final Sales                                                                +1.2%

Chain prices                                                               +1.7%

Current-dollar                                                             +5.0%

                                                                           Q3-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                                       +2.3%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                                   +0.9%

                                                Q4-18                      Q3-18

ECI (q/q)                                       +0.7%                      +0.8%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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