US: Recap of Economic Indicators

                             Mar-19   Feb-19   Jan-19   Dec-18   Nov-18   Oct-18

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UI Claims/4wk avg

wk 1                        230/224  235/225  216/222  206/225  221/217  215/210

wk 2                        221/225  239/232  212/221  217/223  224/219  210/212

wk 3                                 217/236  200/215  221/220  234/223  216/212

wk 4                                 226/229  253/220  233/219  231/228  215/214

wk 5                                 223/226                             214/214

Nonfarm Payrolls                        +20k    +311k    +227k    +196k    +277k

Private Payrolls                        +25k    +308k    +224k    +200k    +285k

Mfg Payroll                              +4k     +21k     +20k     +27k     +29k

Unemployment                            3.8%     4.0%     3.9%     3.7%     3.8%

Avg Wkly Hours                          34.4     34.5     34.5     34.4     34.5

Avg Hours - Mfg                         40.7     40.8     40.9     40.8     40.8

Aggr Hours Index                       -0.3%    +0.3%    +0.5%    -0.2%    +0.3%

Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg                   -0.2%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.2%     Flat

Avg Hourly Earnings                    +0.4%    +0.1%    +0.4%    +0.3%    +0.2%

Final Demand PPI                       +0.1%    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.1%    +0.5%

excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.3%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.3%

excl food, energy, trade               +0.1%    +0.2%     Flat    +0.3%    +0.1%

CPI                                    +0.2%     Flat     Flat     Flat    +0.3%

excl food & energy                     +0.1%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.2%

Import Prices                           +0.6    +0.1%    -1.4%    -1.6%    +0.5%

non-petro import prices                +0.1%    -0.6%    +0.2%    +0.1%    +0.2%

ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index                          49.6     54.9     60.7     71.6

PCE Price Index M/M                                      +0.1%     Flat    +0.2%

PCE Price Index Y/Y                                      +1.7%    +1.8%    +2.0%

Core PCE Price Index M/M                                 +0.2%    +0.2%    +0.1%

Core PCE Price Index Y/Y                                 +1.7%    +1.8%    +2.0%

Treasury Budget (bn)                            +$8.7   -$13.5  -$204.9  -$100.5

Consumer Credit (bn)                           +$17.0   +$15.4   +$22.1   +$25.4

CB Consumer Confidence                 131.4    121.7    126.6    136.4    137.9

Consumer Sentiment                      93.8     91.2     98.3     97.5     98.6

Car Sales Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                              2.5      2.6      2.5      2.7

Truck Sales Ex GM,Ford,

Saar (mn)                                         4.6      5.0      4.9      4.9

Total Ex GM,Ford, saar

(mn)                                              7.1      7.5      7.4      7.6

Retail Sales                                    +0.2%    -1.6%     Flat    +1.0%

excl motor vehicles                             +0.9%    -2.1%    -0.1%    +0.8%

Personal Income                                 -0.1%    +1.0%    +0.3%    +0.5%

Personal Spending                                        -0.5%    +0.6%    +0.7%

ISM Mfg Index                           54.2     56.6     54.3     58.8     57.5

ISM Nonmfg NMI                          59.7     56.7     58.0     60.4     60.0

MNI Chicago Report                      64.7     56.7     63.8     63.5     59.4

Phila Fed Mfg Index            13.7     -4.1     17.0      9.1     11.9     19.7

Phila Fed Nonmfg Index         21.7     10.0      1.0      7.7     35.5     34.7

Empire State Index                       3.7      3.9     11.5     21.4     20.0

KC Fed Mfg Index                           1        5        6       17       10

Richmond Fed Mfg Index           10       16       -2       -8       14       15

Dallas Fed Mfg Index            8.3     13.1      1.0     -5.1     17.6     29.4

Markit Mfg Index               52.5     53.0     54.9     53.8     55.4     55.7

Markit Services Index          54.8     56.0     54.2     54.4     54.7     54.8

Ind Production                          Flat    -0.1%    -0.1%    +0.7%    +0.1%

Capacity Util                          79.1%    79.2%    79.4%    79.6%    79.2%

Factory Orders                                  +0.1%    +0.1%    -0.5%    -2.1%

Factory Orders ex

transport                                       -0.2%    -0.5%    -1.3%    +0.2%

Durables                                        +0.3%    +1.3%    +0.9%    -4.3%

Durables ex transport                           -0.2%    +0.3%    -0.2%    +0.4%

Nondurables                                     -0.2%    -1.1%    -2.0%    +0.1%

Mfg Shipments                                   -0.2%    -0.2%    +1.0%    -0.3%

Business Inventories                                     +0.6%     Flat    +0.6%

Factory                                                   Flat    -0.1%    +0.2%

Retail                                                   +0.9%    -0.4%    +0.8%

Wholesale                                       +1.2%    +1.1%    +0.4%    +0.9%

Housing Starts (mn)                    1.162    1.273    1.140    1.206    1.209

Building Permits (mn)                  1.296    1.317    1.326    1.322    1.265

NAHB Index                       62       62       58       56       60       60

New Home Sales (k)                                607      652      628      549

Existing Homes (mn)                     5.51     4.93     5.00     5.21     5.22

Pending Home Sales Index                                  99.0    101.2    102.1

Construct Spending                              +1.3%    -0.8%    -1.3%    +0.2%

Private Residential                             -0.3%    -1.9%    -0.6%    -0.7%

Trade Balance (bn)                             -$51.1   -$59.9   -$50.5   -$56.5

Exports (bn)                                  +$207.3  +$205.4  +$209.3  +$210.7

Imports (bn)                                  +$258.5  +$265.4  +$259.9  +$267.2

Goods Only, BOP (bn)                           -$73.3   -$81.5   -$72.6   -$78.9

Leading Index                                            -0.1%    +0.2%    -0.3%

                                                         Q4-18

GDP (chain-wt)                                           +2.6%

Final Sales                                              +2.5%

Chain prices                                             +1.8%

Current-dollar                                           +4.6%

                                                         Q4-18

Nonfarm Productivity                                     +1.9%

Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs                                 +2.0%

                                                         Q4-18

ECI (q/q)                                                +0.7%

(a) advance report

--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com

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