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Free AccessMNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Tariffs Initiate Talks With Mexico
US: Recap of Economic Indicators
Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18 Jun-18 May-18 Apr-18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UI Claims/4wk avg
wk 1 204/208 214/214 215/223 222/226 211/216 233/230
wk 2 202/206 212/216 208/221 221/225 223/214 233/232
wk 3 214/206 210/214 217/218 218/221 234/220 209/229
wk 4 213/212 219/214 228/222 223/223 211/222
wk 5 205/210 232/225
Nonfarm Payrolls +201k +147k +208k +244k +175k
Private Payrolls +204k +153k +208k +239k +174k
Mfg Payroll -3k +18k +21k +19k +28k
Unemployment 3.9% 3.9% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9%
Avg Wkly Hours 34.5 34.5 34.6 34.5 34.5
Avg Hours - Mfg 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.8 41.0
Aggr Hours Index +0.2% -0.2% +0.5% +0.2% +0.1%
Aggr Hrs Index - Mfg Flat +0.1% +0.4% -0.1% +0.5%
Avg Hourly Earnings +0.4% +0.3% +0.2% +0.3% +0.2%
Final Demand PPI -0.1% Flat +0.3% +0.5% +0.1%
excl food & energy -0.1% +0.1% +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%
excl food, energy, trade +0.1% +0.3% +0.3% +0.1% +0.1%
CPI +0.2% +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2%
excl food & energy +0.1% +0.2% +0.2% +0.2% +0.1%
Import Prices -0.6% -0.1% +0.1% +0.9% +0.5%
non-petro import prices -0.1% -0.3% -0.3% +0.2% +0.1%
ISM Mfg Prices Pd Index 66.9 72.1 73.2 76.8 79.5 79.3
PCE Price Index M/M +0.1% +0.1% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2%
PCE Price Index Y/Y +2.2% +2.3% +2.3% +2.3% +2.0%
Core PCE Price Index M/M Flat +0.2% +0.1% +0.2% +0.2%
Core PCE Price Index Y/Y +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +2.0% +1.9%
Treasury Budget (bn) -$214.1 -$76.9 -$74.9 -$146.8 +$214.3
Consumer Credit (bn) +$16.6 +$8.7 +$21.9 +$8.6
CB Consumer Confidence 138.4 134.7 127.9 126.4 128.8 125.6
Consumer Sentiment 100.8 96.2 97.6 98.2 98.0 98.8
Car Sales (Ex GM), saar
(mn) 3.0 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1
Truck Sales (Ex GM), Saar
(mn) 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 6.9
Total (Ex GM), saar (mn) 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.3 9.9 10.0
Retail Sales +0.1% +0.7% +0.2% +1.2% +0.4%
excl motor vehicles +0.3% +0.9% +0.3% +1.4% +0.4%
Personal Income +0.3% +0.3% +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%
Personal Spending +0.3% +0.4% +0.4% +0.5% +0.5%
ISM Mfg Index 59.8 61.3 58.1 60.2 58.7 57.3
ISM Nonmfg NMI 61.6 58.5 55.7 59.1 58.6 56.8
MNI Chicago Report 60.4 63.6 65.5 64.1 62.7 57.6
Phila Fed Mfg Index 22.9 11.9 25.7 19.9 34.4 23.2
Phila Fed Nonmfg Index 37.4 41.7 44.3 39.1 45.3 27.6
Empire State Index 19.0 25.6 22.6 25.0 20.1 15.8
KC Fed Mfg Index 13 14 23 28 29 26
Richmond Fed Mfg Index 29 24 20 21 16 -3
Dallas Fed Mfg Index 28.1 30.9 32.3 36.5 26.8 21.8
Markit Mfg Index 55.6 54.7 55.3 55.4 56.4 56.5
Markit Services Index 53.5 54.8 56.0 56.5 56.8 54.6
Ind Production +0.4% +0.4% +0.6% -0.8% +1.1%
Capacity Util 78.1% 77.9% 77.8% 77.4% 78.2%
Factory Orders -0.8% +0.6% +0.6% +0.4% -0.4%
Factory Orders ex
transport +0.1% +0.3% +0.4% +0.8% +0.9%
Durables -1.7% +0.9% +0.9% -0.3% -1.0%
Durables ex transport +0.1% +0.3% +0.3% +0.3% +1.9%
Nondurables +0.2% +0.4% +0.4% +1.1% +0.3%
Mfg Shipments Flat +1.0% +0.6% +0.1%
Business Inventories +0.6% +0.1% +0.3% +0.3%
Factory +0.8% +0.2% +0.2% +0.4%
Retail +0.5% -0.1% +0.4% +0.4%
Wholesale +0.6% +0.1% +0.3% +0.1%
Housing Starts (mn) 1.282 1.174 1.177 1.329 1.276
Building Permits (mn) 1.249 1.303 1.292 1.301 1.364
NAHB Index 67 68 68 70 68
New Home Sales (k) 629 608 618 653 633
Existing Homes (mn) 5.34 5.34 5.38 5.41 5.45
Pending Home Sales Index 106.2 106.9 105.9 106.4
Construct Spending +0.1% +0.2% -0.7% +0.7% +1.7%
Private Residential -0.5% -0.2% -0.7% -0.3% 3.1%
Trade Balance (bn) -$50.1 -$45.7 -$42.6 -$45.5
Exports (bn) +$211.1 +$213.2 +$214.7 +$210.5
Imports (bn) +$261.2 +$258.9 +$257.2 +$256.0
Goods Only, BOP (bn) -$73.1 -$68.9 -$65.8 -$68.4
Leading Index +0.4% +0.7% +0.5% +0.1% +0.4%
Q2-18 Q1-18
GDP (chain-wt) +4.2% +2.2%
Final Sales +5.4% +1.9%
Chain prices +3.0% +2.0%
Current-dollar +7.6% +4.3%
Q2-18 Q1-18
Nonfarm Productivity +2.9% +0.3%
Nonfarm Unit Labor Costs -1.0% +3.4%
Q2-18 Q1-18
ECI (q/q) +0.6% +0.8%
(a) advance report
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 (973) 494-2611; email: harrison.clarke@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MAUDT$,M$U$$$]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.