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US Record Prices Charged Further Boosts Inflation Expectations

DATA REACT
  • The sizeable beat in the composite PMI in Feb, up from 51.1 to 56.0 (cons 52.5), came as the service sector rebounded “especially impressively” following Omicron restrictions.
  • There was though a more muted upturn in manufacturing where supply shortages continue to hamper production with a further large rise in backlogs.
  • Price pressures are clear to see: input costs rose “yet again at another near-record pace” whilst “increasing numbers of companies sought to pass these higher costs on to customers” to push the largest increase in average prices charged on record.
  • Having already increased 4bps on the day, Fed Funds pricing for Mar16 was little changed on the release as it firmed less than 0.5bps to 34bps. There’s a similar story in 5Y breakevens, up 0.5bps to 2.99% after already increasing 5bps earlier (white in chart) which has driven an even larger gap over 5y5y inflation expectations (yellow) in a sign of a potential greater overshoot.

5Y breakeven (white), 5y5y inflation swaps (yellow) and differential (green)Source: Bloomberg

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