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US Services Consumption Has Room To Grow This Summer

DATA REACT

While goods consumption has long since passed pre-pandemic levels (at 116% of Feb 2020 levels in real terms), today's April personal income and spending report reminds that services still have room to recover.

  • Having dropped to 80% of pre-pandemic levels by April 2020 amid lockdowns etc, services have recovered most of that ground, but remain 95.3% of peak levels. Taking into account the underlying trend in growth (+0.1 to 0.2% M/M over 2016-2020) in services growth, services consumption is around 93% of where it "should" be.


Source: MNI


  • The sub-categories that are due to come back strong in the summer are also those that have the furthest to come back.
  • Wells Fargo notes that in nominal terms some of the biggest categories of services: "other", "recreation" and "transportation" services are lagging; healthcare and food/accommodation are below peak but doing better than some of their services counterparts. Financial services and housing/utilities are two rare large services categories where consumption is greater (again, in nominal terms) than pre-pandemic.


Source: Wells Fargo, MNI

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