US Storage Surplus and Warm Weather Weigh on Henry Hub

Henry Hub front month extends the decline from yesterday with a high storage surplus and mild weather weighing on prices.

• US Natgas MAR 24 down -4.6% at 1.65$/mmbtu
• US Natgas AUG 24 down -1.8% at 2.48$/mmbtu
• US Natgas FEB 25 down -1.3% at 3.51$/mmbtu
• The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Feb 16 showed an as expected smaller than normal draw of -60bcf compared to the seasonal normal draw of -153bcf. The small draw driven by the recent warm weather is maintaining a strong US inventory surplus. Total stocks are at 2,470bcf compared to the previous five year average of 2,061cf.
• US gas production continues to edge slightly lower this month down to the lowest since 23 Jan at 102.4bcf/d today. Output however remains above levels seen this time last year amid market concerns this week for producer output this year.
• Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals are today at 13.54bcf/d according to Bloomberg with a drop in Corpus Christi flows offsetting a recovery in Sabine Pass supply.
• Mild weather is forecast to persist for much of the US in the coming fortnight as the NOAA 6-14 period still shows above normal temperatures in central and eastern areas but slightly below normal on the west coast. Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated relatively unchanged from yesterday at 82.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
• Export flow to Mexico is today at 5.9bcf/d.