Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
DATA REACT
One of the stories in the June Employment Report r(and one that makes this report a little tricker to interpret) is the divergence between the Household and Establishment surveys. And not for the first time, but the +850k payroll gain in the Establishment survey diverged with the -18k Household survey employment change. See chart.
- The unemployment rate is derived from the Household survey and that's why the unemployment rate ticked higher even as the headline NFP number was a beat and the participation rate was unchanged (the number of unemployed in the Household survey +168k).
- This was probably one of the sources of confused price action in both directions following the report's release.
- The establishment survey looks at payroll records, both private and government. The household survey surveys households. The composition is slightly different for both. It's not uncommon in an economic upturn for the establishment numbers to be better than the household figures, as marginal/nonstandard workers that are sometimes captured in the household survey are formally hired by establishment firms.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok