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US Tsy Curve Twist Steepens, 2s10s Least Inverted Since October

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures sold off during the US session on Wednesday, as weaker equities , mixed data and the $70b 5Y bond auction all led to selling pressure. The front-end out-performed holding on to some gains for the day as the long-end closed lower. Futures closed the session well off highs with TUU4 +0-01⅝ at 102-17⅞, while TYU4 finish -0-06+ at 110-21+.
  • Short end rates well bid early after former NY Fed Pres Dudley said he had changed his mind and rate cuts were warranted now, not later in the year.
  • The treasury curve twist-steepened on Wednesday, with yields were -2.5bps to +6bps with the 2y closing -2.3bps at 4.431%, while the 10yr closed +3.3bps at 4.284%, the 2s10s closed at the least inverted level since Oct 23 up 9.186 at -15.104
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end are gained vs. this morning's levels (*): July'24 at -5.5% w/ cumulative at -1.4bp at 5.315%, Sep'24 cumulative -27.3bp (-25bp), Nov'24 cumulative -42.8bp (-40.1bp), Dec'24 -65.3bp (-62.8bp).
  • looking ahead we have GDP, Core PCE Weekly Claims and 7Y Note Sale.
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