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Free AccessMNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: Dec 2024
MNI US Employment Insight: Soft Enough To Keep Fed Cutting
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Jobs Data Green Lights Rate Cuts
US TSYS:
US TSY SUMMARY: Tsy trading mildly lower at the bottom of the range; moderate
volume (TYH 990k); Curves flatter. Light data today had little impact on the
markets. A poor 3Y UST Auction was mostly ignored by tsy, dipping slightly;
-Several headlines came out after US, China negotiators met for the second day
straight summarizing that talks were going well and that they had narrow
differences on trade. The two sides are still not ready to strike a deal as
talks are expected to continue tomorrow.
-Headline out this morning, "*HUAWEI APPEARS TO HAVE TIES TO FRONT COS. IN IRAN,
SYRIA: RTRS-bbg" caused a slip in spoos to fall even further as treasuries pared
losses.
-Sources saying TRUMP WILL NOT INVOKE EMERGENCY POWERS TO BUILD A BORDER WALL
TONIGHT
-Equities higher (emini +21.00, 2571.50); WTI up (WTI +1.11, 49.63), DXY up
(+.272, 95.938); $/Eur -0.0037 at 1.1438, $/Yen -0.04 108.68; Gold (XAU -4.54,
1284.66) -Tsy cash/ylds: 2Y 99-26.75 (2.581%), 5Y 100-7.5 (2.573%), 10Y 103-14.5
(2.721%), 30Y 107-10 (3.001%).
US TSY FUTURES CLOSE: Tsy trading mildly lower at the bottom of the range;
moderate volume (TYH 987k); Curves flatter; update:
* 2s10s -2.218, 12.917 (12.639L/15.772H);
* 2s30s -3.491, 40.826 (40.476L/45.103H);
* 5s30s -2.738, 42.123 (41.884L/45.883H);
Current futures levels:
* Mar Ultra bonds down 18/32 at 161-07 (161-06L/161-26H)
* Mar 30-yr Bond futures down 19/32 at 145-29 (145-28L/146-13H)
* Mar 10-yr futures down 11/32 at 121-22.5 (121-21.5L/122-1.5H)
* Mar 5-yr futures down 09/32 at 114-9.75 (114-9.75L/114-18H)
* Mar 2-yr futures down 4.5/32 at 105-30 (105-30L/106-02H)
US EURODOLLAR FUTURES CLOSE: Trading moderately lower near the bottom of the
range; moderate volume. Current White pack(Mar'19-Dec'19):
* Mar'19 -0.010 at 97.290
* Jun'19 -0.045 at 97.270
* Sep'19 -0.060 at 97.285
* Dec'19 -0.060 at 97.295
* Red pack (Mar'19-Dec'20) -0.090-0.080
* Green pack (Mar'20-Dec'21) -0.075-0.065
* Blue pack (Mar'21-Dec'21) -0.060
* Gold pack (Mar'22-Dec'22) -0.050-0.040
US DOLLAR LIBOR: Latest settles,
* O/N -0.0013 to 2.3913% (-0.0027 wk)
* 1 Month +0.0044 to 2.5155% (-0.0050 wk)
* 3 Month -0.0143 to 2.7825% (-0.0214 wk)
* 6 Month +0.0038 to 2.8526% (-0.0032 wk)
* 1 Year +0.0298 to 3.0161% (+0.0512 wk)
US TSYS: *** /REPO REFERENCE RATES: (rate, volume)
* Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 2.41% vs. 2.45% prior, $1.052T
* Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 2.38% vs. 2.43% prior, $450B
* Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 2.38% vs. 2.43% prior, $425B
US SWAPS: Latest spd levels:
* 2Y -0.60/13.44
* 5Y +0.03/7.05
* 10Y +0.20/2.85
* 30Y +0.40/-16.00
*** Data/speaker calendar (prior, estimate):
09-Jan 0700 04-Jan MBA Mortgage Applications (-9.8%, --)
09-Jan 0820 Atl Fed Pres Bostic, econ outlook, TN, Q&A.
09-Jan 0900 Chi Fed Pres Evans, Discover Fncl Svcs Co, Il, Q&A.
09-Jan 1000 Jan help-wanted online ratio
09-Jan 1000 Jan Atlanta Fed inflation
09-Jan 1030 04-Jan crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w (7M bbl, --)
09-Jan 1100 Dec Kansas City Fed LMCI
09-Jan 1130 Bos Fed Pres Rosengren econ outlook, Boston, Ma
09-Jan 1300 US Tsy $24B 10Y note auction (9128285M8)
09-Jan 1400 December 18-19 FOMC minutes release
PIPELINE: *** PRICED: $4b *EIB 5Y MS +12
Date $MM Issuer/Rating/Desc/Maturity/Yld/Leads; Priced *; Launch #:
1/08 $4b *EIB 5Y MS +12
1/08 $1.5b *MetLife Global Funding, $750m 3Y +82, $750m 5Y +105
1/08 $1.5b *BNG Bank NV 2Y MS +5
1/08 $5b #Marsh & McLennan, $700m 2Y +95, $300m 3NC1 FRN 3mL +120,
$1b 5Y +130, $1.25b 10Y +165, $500m 20Y +175, $1.25b 30Y +190
1/08 $500m #Orix Corporation, 5Y +150
1/08 $Benchmark IADB 5Y MS +11a
-
$7b Priced Today
Eurodollar/Treasury Option Summary
Eurodollar options, Pit/screen:
* 10,000 Green Jun 66 puts at 1 vs 9747/0.04%
* 10,000 Short Mar 73 Straddle at 23
* +17,000 Short Feb 71/72/73 put tree vs 76 calls at 1.5, buying the tree
* +10,000 Short Mar 71/72/73 put tree vs 77 calls at 1, buying the put tree
BLOCK
* -5,000 Red Dec 71/76 Strangle at 53
* 10,000 Sep 66/67/68/70 put condor at 1.5 vs 9729.5/0.10%
* 5,000 Jun 70 puts at 1
* 5,000 Apr 72 puts at 4.25
* -15,000 Long Green Sep 55/65 put sprd vs Long Green Sep 90/100 call sprd at 2
vs 49.5/0.22%, bought the call sprd, sold the put sprd BLOCK....adds to 5k in
pit
* 20,000 Green Jun 80/82 2x1 call sprd at 8.5 vs 9750/0.28% vs 9750/0.28%
* 5,000 Jun 72/73 call sprd at 2.25
UPDATE: Total +30,000 Short Feb 73 puts at 8.5 vs 38.5/0.50%
* +30,000 Mar 73 calls at 1.5 BLOCK
* -7,500 Mar 72/73/75 1x3x2 call fly at 3.25|
* Total -35,000 Long Green Dec 65/66 put sprd at 2 over the 90/100 call sprd vs
45.5/0.22%
* Total +10,000 Feb 72 puts at 1.5
* Total -40,000 Blue Jun 71/77 call over risk reversal at 1 vs 9742.5/0.50%
BLOCK
* 5,000 Short Jun 71/76 puts over risk reversal at 2 vs 9737.5/0.58%
* 10,000 Dec 73/76 put sprd at 3.5 over the Red Sep 73/76 put sprd, note 8k
traded in pit
* -11,630 Mar 72/73 1x2 call sprd at 3.25 BLOCK
US TSY OPTIONS
US TSY OPTIONS: Latest trade,
* 2,000 TYJ 118/120/122.5 1x3x2 put fly at 39 vs 27/0.20%
* +20,000 FVG9 114.5/115.5 call sprd at 13
* +14,000 TYH9 131.5 calls at 1, on screen
* +12,000 FVG9 114.75 calls at 1.5 over -6,000 FVH9 114.75 calls vs 11.5/0.25%
--MNI Chicago Bureau; +1 630-698-0154; email: ryan.martin@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MN$FI$,MN$FX$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.