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US TSYS: Broad-Based Rally With Jobless Claims and Flash PMIs Eyed

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have extended highs, ever since soft European flash PMIs aided a tentative rally in Asia hours to reverse yesterday’s sell-off. Treasuries mostly trade in line with EGBs whilst outperforming Gilts where idiosyncratic fiscal factors are at play.
  • Data leads today’s docket with jobless claims before US flash PMIs, but issuance could start to come into greater focus ahead of the quarterly refunding round starting Monday. See the MNI Refunding Preview here.
  • Cash yields are 3.3-5.6bps lower on the day, with the front-end lagging declines perhaps with WTI futures weighing having reversed earlier losses.
  • TYZ4 has just hit session highs of 111-13 (+12) on solid cumulative volumes of 415k. It pushes closer to resistance at 112-18+ (20-day EMA) but the trend needle points south with support at 111-04 (200-dma) and 110-30+ (Oct 23 low).
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Chic Fed national activity Sep (0830ET), S&P Global US flash PMIs Oct (0945ET), New home sales Sep (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Oct (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack welcome remarks (0845ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy to sell $24bn 5Y TIPS (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $95bn 4-w and $90bn 8-w bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have extended highs, ever since soft European flash PMIs aided a tentative rally in Asia hours to reverse yesterday’s sell-off. Treasuries mostly trade in line with EGBs whilst outperforming Gilts where idiosyncratic fiscal factors are at play.
  • Data leads today’s docket with jobless claims before US flash PMIs, but issuance could start to come into greater focus ahead of the quarterly refunding round starting Monday. See the MNI Refunding Preview here.
  • Cash yields are 3.3-5.6bps lower on the day, with the front-end lagging declines perhaps with WTI futures weighing having reversed earlier losses.
  • TYZ4 has just hit session highs of 111-13 (+12) on solid cumulative volumes of 415k. It pushes closer to resistance at 112-18+ (20-day EMA) but the trend needle points south with support at 111-04 (200-dma) and 110-30+ (Oct 23 low).
  • Data: Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Chic Fed national activity Sep (0830ET), S&P Global US flash PMIs Oct (0945ET), New home sales Sep (1000ET), KC Fed mfg Oct (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Hammack welcome remarks (0845ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy to sell $24bn 5Y TIPS (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $95bn 4-w and $90bn 8-w bills (1130ET)