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US TSYS: Broad Consolidation Of The Week’s Rally Before Important Data

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have sold off a little but broadly consolidate sizeable rallies seen ever since the US came back from Labor Day.
  • Cash yields are 1-1.5bp higher on the day, with both 2s and 10s briefly dipping below 3.75% overnight before lifting.
  • 2s10s is at 0.0bps off a latest recent high of +1.2bps. It topped out at +2bps the Monday after last month’s payrolls report.
  • TYZ4 has kept to relatively narrow ranges overnight and at 114-17+ is little changed on the day under reasonable cumulative of 345k ahead of a busy data docket.
  • An overnight high of 114-22+ maintains what is seen as a bullish outlook, with next resistance at 114-31+ (76.4% retrace of Aug 5-8 pullback) whilst stronger data could see 113-25 (20-day EMA) come more into play.
  • Data should continue to dominate the session after historically high issuance earlier in the week did little to stop the large firming in Treasuries. Nonfarm payrolls awaits tomorrow (MNI Preview here).
  • Data: Challenger job cuts Aug (0730ET), ADP Aug (0815ET), Jobless claims (0830ET), ULCs/Productivity Q2 final (0830ET), S&P Global US Serv/Composite PMI Aug final (0945ET), ISM Services Aug (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $80bn 4-w and $80bn 8-w bills (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries have sold off a little but broadly consolidate sizeable rallies seen ever since the US came back from Labor Day.
  • Cash yields are 1-1.5bp higher on the day, with both 2s and 10s briefly dipping below 3.75% overnight before lifting.
  • 2s10s is at 0.0bps off a latest recent high of +1.2bps. It topped out at +2bps the Monday after last month’s payrolls report.
  • TYZ4 has kept to relatively narrow ranges overnight and at 114-17+ is little changed on the day under reasonable cumulative of 345k ahead of a busy data docket.
  • An overnight high of 114-22+ maintains what is seen as a bullish outlook, with next resistance at 114-31+ (76.4% retrace of Aug 5-8 pullback) whilst stronger data could see 113-25 (20-day EMA) come more into play.
  • Data should continue to dominate the session after historically high issuance earlier in the week did little to stop the large firming in Treasuries. Nonfarm payrolls awaits tomorrow (MNI Preview here).
  • Data: Challenger job cuts Aug (0730ET), ADP Aug (0815ET), Jobless claims (0830ET), ULCs/Productivity Q2 final (0830ET), S&P Global US Serv/Composite PMI Aug final (0945ET), ISM Services Aug (1000ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $80bn 4-w and $80bn 8-w bills (1130ET)