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US TSYS: Columbus Day Sell-Off More Than Reversed

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries have more than unwound yesterday’s Columbus Day sell-off, aided by large declines in oil futures on a combination of demand concerns and a fading of geopolitical risk premium on reports Israel won’t target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities.
  • Today sees a light docket with added attention on earnings results plus potential spillover from CAD CPI at 0830ET. More notable US releases are to come with international prices on Wed and retail sales on Thu.  
  • Cash yields are 1-5bp lower from Friday’s close after yesterday’s closures.
  • 2s10s drops to 11.9bps (-2.7bps) but remains within recent ranges.  
  • TYZ4 is close to session highs of 112-08+ (+13) for a sizeable turnaround from yesterday’s holiday-thinned low of 111-23, along with a decent rise in volumes to a cumulative 330k at typing.
  • That low stopped short of support at 111-22 (Oct 10 low) with recent declines keeping the bear threat intact, whilst to the upside sits resistance at 112-21 (Oct 9 high).
  • Data: Empire mfg Oct (0830ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Sep (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Daly (1130ET), Kugler (1300ET), Bostic (1900ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $81B 13-w bills, $72B 26-w bills, US Tsy to sell $80B 43-day CMB
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  • Treasuries have more than unwound yesterday’s Columbus Day sell-off, aided by large declines in oil futures on a combination of demand concerns and a fading of geopolitical risk premium on reports Israel won’t target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities.
  • Today sees a light docket with added attention on earnings results plus potential spillover from CAD CPI at 0830ET. More notable US releases are to come with international prices on Wed and retail sales on Thu.  
  • Cash yields are 1-5bp lower from Friday’s close after yesterday’s closures.
  • 2s10s drops to 11.9bps (-2.7bps) but remains within recent ranges.  
  • TYZ4 is close to session highs of 112-08+ (+13) for a sizeable turnaround from yesterday’s holiday-thinned low of 111-23, along with a decent rise in volumes to a cumulative 330k at typing.
  • That low stopped short of support at 111-22 (Oct 10 low) with recent declines keeping the bear threat intact, whilst to the upside sits resistance at 112-21 (Oct 9 high).
  • Data: Empire mfg Oct (0830ET), NY Fed inflation expectations Sep (1100ET)
  • Fedspeak: Daly (1130ET), Kugler (1300ET), Bostic (1900ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $81B 13-w bills, $72B 26-w bills, US Tsy to sell $80B 43-day CMB