WILLIAMS: 'WAY ABOVE' AMPLE LEVEL OF RESERVES

MNI BRIEF: Goolsbee Downplays Fed Disagreement, Hotter CPI

MNI BRIEF: US Sept CPI Hotter Than Forecast; Claims Higher Too

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, October 10

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY142 Bln via OMO Thursday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BTP Auction on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE +82 BCF TO 3,629 BCF OCT 04 WK

MNI: US JOBLESS CLAIMS +33K TO 258K IN OCT 05 WK

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Projected Rate Cuts Consolidate

US TSYS
USGlobalBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsRegionNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish mixed after a volatile first half. Markets are still digesting this morning's higher than expected CPI and weekly jobless claims while Fed speak came out mixed: Atlanta Fed Bostic saying the door is open to skipping a rate cut at the next November, while NY Fed Williams sees a solid U.S. labor market and inflation is closing in on 2% over time.
  • Initial jobless claims for the six states most heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene saw non-seasonally adjusted claims rise to 35.5k vs closer to the 20k or even a little below that is typical for the time of year.
  • The upside surprise in September CPI (headline 0.18% M/M vs 0.08% expected, Core 0.31% vs 0.25% expected) was driven by multiple factors - which may not be translated into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, potentially mitigating the upside surprise from a market perspective.
  • Short end disconnected as Tsy curves twisted steeper (2s10ss +5.147 at 9.831), while projected rate cuts have scaled back from this morning's post-data highs (*): Nov'24 cumulative -20.7bp (-22.7bp), Dec'24 -44.2bp (-46.5bp), Jan'25 -63.9bp (-68.9bp).
  • Strong 30Y Bond auction reopen traded through: 4.389% high yield vs. 4.405% WI; 2.50x bid-to-cover vs. 2.38x in the prior month. Indirect take-up surged to new all-time high of 80.47% vs. 68.68% prior; direct bidder take-up 7.37% vs. 15.66% prior; primary dealer take-up 12.16% vs. 15.66% prior.
  • Focus turns to Friday's PPI and University of Michigan inflation expectations, as well as the start of the latest earning cycle with several banks reporting before the open: Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank of NY Mellon and Blackrock.
262 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Treasuries look to finish mixed after a volatile first half. Markets are still digesting this morning's higher than expected CPI and weekly jobless claims while Fed speak came out mixed: Atlanta Fed Bostic saying the door is open to skipping a rate cut at the next November, while NY Fed Williams sees a solid U.S. labor market and inflation is closing in on 2% over time.
  • Initial jobless claims for the six states most heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene saw non-seasonally adjusted claims rise to 35.5k vs closer to the 20k or even a little below that is typical for the time of year.
  • The upside surprise in September CPI (headline 0.18% M/M vs 0.08% expected, Core 0.31% vs 0.25% expected) was driven by multiple factors - which may not be translated into the Fed's preferred PCE gauge, potentially mitigating the upside surprise from a market perspective.
  • Short end disconnected as Tsy curves twisted steeper (2s10ss +5.147 at 9.831), while projected rate cuts have scaled back from this morning's post-data highs (*): Nov'24 cumulative -20.7bp (-22.7bp), Dec'24 -44.2bp (-46.5bp), Jan'25 -63.9bp (-68.9bp).
  • Strong 30Y Bond auction reopen traded through: 4.389% high yield vs. 4.405% WI; 2.50x bid-to-cover vs. 2.38x in the prior month. Indirect take-up surged to new all-time high of 80.47% vs. 68.68% prior; direct bidder take-up 7.37% vs. 15.66% prior; primary dealer take-up 12.16% vs. 15.66% prior.
  • Focus turns to Friday's PPI and University of Michigan inflation expectations, as well as the start of the latest earning cycle with several banks reporting before the open: Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank of NY Mellon and Blackrock.